Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónRegular Season - 30Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Santiago de Chile
The Footlab model makes Universidad de Chile the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 15% for Union La Calera. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera?
Universidad de Chile starts as the favourite with a 176-point Elo edge (1,877 vs 1,701).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Universidad de Chile have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Union La Calera have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Colo Colo(home) | 1-2 | Primera División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Deportes Limache(away) | 3-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Palestino(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Union San Felipe(away) | 1-0 | Copa Chile |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Huachipato(home) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | A. Italiano(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nublense(away) | 1-2 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Colo Colo(home) | 1-2 | Primera División |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Santiago Wanderers(away) | 4-0 | Copa Chile |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cobresal(away) | 0-4 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Universidad de Chile win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Union La Calera win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 2, 2026 | Universidad de Chile 0-1 Union La Calera | Copa Chile |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Union La Calera 3-3 Universidad de Chile | Copa Chile |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Union La Calera 2-2 Universidad de Chile | Primera División |
| May 10, 2026 | Union La Calera 1-0 Universidad de Chile | Copa De La Liga |
| Mar 24, 2026 | Universidad de Chile 0-1 Union La Calera | Copa De La Liga |
| Jul 28, 2025 | Union La Calera 0-4 Universidad de Chile | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera on Jul 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Universidad de Chile score 2.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Union La Calera score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Universidad de Chile | 2.1 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Union La Calera | 1.4 | 1.3 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Universidad de Chile sit 3rd in Primera División (24 points from 15 matches) and Union La Calera sit 16th (12 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 27 | 15 | 36 |
| 3 | Universidad de Chile | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 10 | 24 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 28 | 12 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 37 | 14 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera?
- The Footlab model makes Universidad de Chile the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 15% for Union La Calera.
- Where and when is Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera played?
- Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera is played on December 6, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.