Universidad de Concepcion vs U. Catolica: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónRegular Season - 30Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo, Concepción
The Footlab model makes U. Catolica the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Universidad de Concepcion. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Universidad de Concepcion vs U. Catolica?
U. Catolica starts as the favourite with a 270-point Elo edge (1,869 vs 1,600).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Universidad de Concepcion have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; U. Catolica have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Everton de Vina(away) | 1-3 | Primera División |
| Aug 14, 2026 | D. La Serena(home) | 0-2 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Concepción(away) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Curico Unido(home) | 1-3 | Copa Chile |
| Aug 1, 2026 | A. Italiano(home) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Nublense(home) | 1-2 | Primera División |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Estudiantes L.P.(home) | 0-3 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Estudiantes L.P.(away) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cobresal(home) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Concepción(away) | 0-3 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Universidad de Concepcion win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 U. Catolica win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2026 | U. Catolica 5-1 Universidad de Concepcion | Primera División |
| May 3, 2026 | Universidad de Concepcion 2-2 U. Catolica | Copa De La Liga |
| Mar 22, 2026 | U. Catolica 2-1 Universidad de Concepcion | Copa De La Liga |
| Feb 14, 2021 | Universidad de Concepcion 1-2 U. Catolica | Primera División |
| Oct 10, 2020 | U. Catolica 1-1 Universidad de Concepcion | Primera División |
| Aug 4, 2019 | Universidad de Concepcion 0-3 U. Catolica | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: U. Catolica vs Universidad de Concepcion on Jun 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Universidad de Concepcion score 0.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; U. Catolica score 2.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Universidad de Concepcion | 0.9 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| U. Catolica | 2.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Universidad de Concepcion sit 11th in Primera División (19 points from 15 matches) and U. Catolica sit 2nd (26 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | U. Catolica | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 35 | 20 | 26 |
| 5 | U. Catolica | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 41 | 28 | 30 |
| 11 | Universidad de Concepcion | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 26 | 19 |
| 14 | Universidad de Concepcion | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 33 | 19 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Universidad de Concepcion vs U. Catolica?
- The Footlab model makes U. Catolica the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Universidad de Concepcion.
- Where and when is Universidad de Concepcion vs U. Catolica played?
- Universidad de Concepcion vs U. Catolica is played on December 6, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.