URA vs Ntugasaze: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueMatchday 11Kick-off on November 20, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Mehta Stadium, Lugazi
The Footlab AI model makes URA the favourite at 66%, against 22% for a draw and 12% for Ntugasaze. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,579 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win URA vs Ntugasaze?
URA starts as the favourite with a 161-point Elo edge (1,396 vs 1,234).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for URA vs Ntugasaze
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
URA
Not enough data to predict the URA lineup.
Ntugasaze
Not enough data to predict the Ntugasaze lineup.
Computed on November 13, 2026 at 06:56 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, URA have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Ntugasaze have 1, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | Kataka(away) | 4-3 | Premier League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Vipers(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 27, 2026 | UPDF(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Blacks Power(away) | 2-3 | Premier League |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Entebbe UPPC(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2026 | Entebbe UPPC(home) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Express(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 27, 2026 | NEC(away) | 1-5 | Premier League |
| Oct 13, 2026 | KCCA(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Mbarara City(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
URA score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Ntugasaze score 0.7 and concede 2.4. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| URA | 1.2 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Ntugasaze | 0.7 | 2.4 | 1 | 5/9 | 5/9 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
URA sit 8th in Premier League (13 points from 9 matches) and Ntugasaze sit 17th (4 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | URA | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 13 | 13 |
| 17 | Ntugasaze | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 22 | 4 |
A question about URA vs Ntugasaze?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for URA vs Ntugasaze?
- The Footlab AI model makes URA the favourite at 66%, against 22% for a draw and 12% for Ntugasaze.
- Where and when is URA vs Ntugasaze played?
- URA vs Ntugasaze is played on November 20, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Mehta Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.