US Ben Guerdane vs ES Tunis: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 12Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Stade de Ben Guerdane, Ben Gardane
The Footlab model makes ES Tunis the favourite at 48%, against 34% for a draw and 18% for US Ben Guerdane. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win US Ben Guerdane vs ES Tunis?
ES Tunis is a heavy favourite: 2,077 Elo points against 1,742 — a 334-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, US Ben Guerdane have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; ES Tunis have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 2026 | ES Tunis(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 8, 2026 | Stade Tunisien(away) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 3, 2026 | AS Soliman(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 30, 2026 | JS Kairouanaise(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | US Monastirienne(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | ES Sahel(home) | 3-2 | Ligue 1 |
| May 31, 2026 | ES Zarzis(away) | 1-0 | Cup |
| May 24, 2026 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane(away) | 1-0 | Cup |
| May 21, 2026 | BS Bouhajla(away) | 3-0 | Cup |
| May 17, 2026 | ES Metlaoui(away) | 3-1 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 US Ben Guerdane win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 ES Tunis win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 14, 2026 | US Ben Guerdane 0-1 ES Tunis | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 10, 2026 | ES Tunis 4-0 US Ben Guerdane | Ligue 1 |
| May 25, 2025 | US Ben Guerdane 0-3 ES Tunis | Cup |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ES Tunis 1-1 US Ben Guerdane | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 22, 2024 | US Ben Guerdane 1-1 ES Tunis | Ligue 1 |
| Jun 1, 2023 | ES Tunis 2-0 US Ben Guerdane | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: US Ben Guerdane vs ES Tunis on May 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
US Ben Guerdane score 0.5 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; ES Tunis score 1.4 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 23% probability of over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Ben Guerdane | 0.5 | 0.7 | 8 | 2/15 | 2/15 |
| ES Tunis | 1.4 | 0.6 | 8 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | ES Tunis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for US Ben Guerdane vs ES Tunis?
- The Footlab model makes ES Tunis the favourite at 48%, against 34% for a draw and 18% for US Ben Guerdane.
- Where and when is US Ben Guerdane vs ES Tunis played?
- US Ben Guerdane vs ES Tunis is played on December 19, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Stade de Ben Guerdane, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 23% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.