US Hostert vs Progres Niederkorn: prediction and stats
National DivisionRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stade Jos Becker, Hostert
The Footlab model makes Progres Niederkorn the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for US Hostert. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win US Hostert vs Progres Niederkorn?
Progres Niederkorn starts as the favourite with a 121-point Elo edge (1,556 vs 1,435).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, US Hostert have 6 wins, 0 draws and 9 defeats; Progres Niederkorn have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Swift Hesperange(away) | 2-0 | National Division |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Etzella Ettelbruck(home) | 5-1 | National Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | UN Kaerjeng 97(away) | 2-4 | National Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Résidence Walferdange(away) | 2-3 | National Division |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Excelsior Virton(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | UNA Strassen(home) | 0-1 | National Division |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Atert Bissen(away) | 4-0 | National Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Résidence Walferdange(away) | 1-0 | National Division |
| Aug 1, 2026 | AS Jeunesse Esch(home) | 2-1 | National Division |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Excelsior Virton(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 US Hostert win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Progres Niederkorn win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | US Hostert 1-5 Progres Niederkorn | National Division |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Progres Niederkorn 2-1 US Hostert | National Division |
| May 4, 2025 | US Hostert 1-3 Progres Niederkorn | National Division |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Progres Niederkorn 3-2 US Hostert | National Division |
| Mar 29, 2023 | Progres Niederkorn 6-0 US Hostert | National Division |
| Oct 9, 2022 | US Hostert 1-0 Progres Niederkorn | National Division |
Last archived meeting: US Hostert vs Progres Niederkorn on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
US Hostert score 1.7 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; Progres Niederkorn score 1.5 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Hostert | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Progres Niederkorn | 1.5 | 1.8 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
US Hostert sit 10th in National Division (3 points from 3 matches) and Progres Niederkorn sit 3rd (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Progres Niederkorn | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 4 | Progres Niederkorn | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | US Hostert | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 6 |
| 10 | US Hostert | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for US Hostert vs Progres Niederkorn?
- The Footlab model makes Progres Niederkorn the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for US Hostert.
- Where and when is US Hostert vs Progres Niederkorn played?
- US Hostert vs Progres Niederkorn is played on October 11, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Jos Becker, in the National Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 11, 2026FC Differdange 03vsRésidence Walferdange
- Oct 11, 2026Racing FC Union LuxembourgvsAtert Bissen
- Oct 11, 2026US RumelangevsUS Mondorf-les-bains
- Oct 11, 2026UN Kaerjeng 97vsAS Jeunesse Esch
- Oct 11, 2026Etzella EttelbruckvsF91 Dudelange
- Oct 11, 2026WiltzvsUNA Strassen
- Oct 11, 2026Swift HesperangevsVictoria Rosport