US Mondorf-les-bains vs Progres Niederkorn: prediction and stats
National DivisionRegular Season - 5Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stade John Grün, Mondorf-les-Bains
The Footlab model makes US Mondorf-les-bains the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Progres Niederkorn. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win US Mondorf-les-bains vs Progres Niederkorn?
A very open match: only 89 Elo points separate US Mondorf-les-bains (1,644) and Progres Niederkorn (1,556).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, US Mondorf-les-bains have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Progres Niederkorn have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | AS Jeunesse Esch(away) | 3-1 | National Division |
| Aug 16, 2026 | F91 Dudelange(home) | 1-0 | National Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Victoria Rosport(away) | 3-2 | National Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FC Differdange 03(home) | 3-2 | National Division |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Dinamo Tbilisi(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | UNA Strassen(home) | 0-1 | National Division |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Atert Bissen(away) | 4-0 | National Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Résidence Walferdange(away) | 1-0 | National Division |
| Aug 1, 2026 | AS Jeunesse Esch(home) | 2-1 | National Division |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Excelsior Virton(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 US Mondorf-les-bains win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Progres Niederkorn win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2026 | US Mondorf-les-bains 1-0 Progres Niederkorn | National Division |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Progres Niederkorn 1-0 US Mondorf-les-bains | National Division |
| Apr 27, 2025 | US Mondorf-les-bains 2-1 Progres Niederkorn | National Division |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Progres Niederkorn 1-1 US Mondorf-les-bains | National Division |
| May 5, 2024 | US Mondorf-les-bains 2-4 Progres Niederkorn | National Division |
| May 1, 2024 | US Mondorf-les-bains 0-2 Progres Niederkorn | Cup |
Last archived meeting: US Mondorf-les-bains vs Progres Niederkorn on Feb 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
US Mondorf-les-bains score 1.6 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Progres Niederkorn score 1.5 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Mondorf-les-bains | 1.6 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Progres Niederkorn | 1.5 | 1.8 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
US Mondorf-les-bains sit 4th in National Division (9 points from 3 matches) and Progres Niederkorn sit 3rd (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Progres Niederkorn | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 4 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for US Mondorf-les-bains vs Progres Niederkorn?
- The Footlab model makes US Mondorf-les-bains the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Progres Niederkorn.
- Where and when is US Mondorf-les-bains vs Progres Niederkorn played?
- US Mondorf-les-bains vs Progres Niederkorn is played on August 30, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stade John Grün, in the National Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Aug 30, 2026WiltzvsF91 Dudelange
- Aug 30, 2026US RumelangevsAS Jeunesse Esch
- Aug 30, 2026UN Kaerjeng 97vsSwift Hesperange
- Aug 30, 2026Racing FC Union LuxembourgvsVictoria Rosport
- Aug 30, 2026US HostertvsFC Differdange 03
- Aug 30, 2026Etzella EttelbruckvsRésidence Walferdange
- Aug 30, 2026UNA StrassenvsAtert Bissen