USD Casatese vs Varesina: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 5Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Campo Sportivo Comunale n.2, Casatenovo
The Footlab model makes USD Casatese the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Varesina. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win USD Casatese vs Varesina?
A very open match: only 99 Elo points separate USD Casatese (1,821) and Varesina (1,722).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, USD Casatese have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Varesina have 5, 7 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Chievo(home) | 2-3 | Serie D - Girone B |
| May 10, 2026 | Leon Monza e Brianza(home) | 4-0 | Serie D - Girone B |
| May 3, 2026 | Leon Monza e Brianza(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Scanzorosciate(away) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Pavia(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Castellanzese(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| May 3, 2026 | Caldiero Terme(away) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Breno(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Milan II(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Chievo(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 USD Casatese win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Varesina win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | USD Casatese 0-1 Varesina | Serie D - Girone B |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Varesina 0-0 USD Casatese | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Varesina 2-3 USD Casatese | Serie D - Girone B |
| Dec 8, 2024 | USD Casatese 0-0 Varesina | Serie D - Girone B |
| Jan 27, 2024 | Varesina 4-1 USD Casatese | Serie D - Girone B |
| Oct 1, 2023 | USD Casatese 2-3 Varesina | Serie D - Girone B |
Last archived meeting: USD Casatese vs Varesina on Mar 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
USD Casatese score 1.5 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Varesina score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD Casatese | 1.5 | 0.6 | 9 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
| Varesina | 1.3 | 1.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for USD Casatese vs Varesina?
- The Footlab model makes USD Casatese the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Varesina.
- Where and when is USD Casatese vs Varesina played?
- USD Casatese vs Varesina is played on September 27, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Sportivo Comunale n.2, in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.