Castellanzese vs Crema: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 5Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Giovanni Provasi, Castellanza
The Footlab model makes Castellanzese the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Crema. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Castellanzese vs Crema?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Castellanzese (1,658) and Crema (1,641).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Castellanzese have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Crema have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Varesina(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone B |
| May 3, 2026 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Milan II(home) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Chievo(away) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Leon Monza e Brianza(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Coriano(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| May 3, 2026 | Piacenza(away) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Correggese(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Pro Palazzolo(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Sangiuliano City(home) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Castellanzese win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Crema win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2025 | Castellanzese 1-1 Crema | Serie D - Girone B |
| Sep 18, 2024 | Crema 0-1 Castellanzese | Serie D - Girone B |
| Mar 28, 2024 | Crema 0-2 Castellanzese | Serie D - Girone B |
| Nov 19, 2023 | Castellanzese 0-0 Crema | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 3, 2022 | Crema 1-1 Castellanzese | Serie D - Girone B |
| Nov 21, 2021 | Castellanzese 0-1 Crema | Serie D - Girone B |
Last archived meeting: Castellanzese vs Crema on Jan 15, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Castellanzese score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Crema score 0.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castellanzese | 1.0 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Crema | 0.7 | 1.2 | 8 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Crema | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 35 | 47 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Castellanzese vs Crema?
- The Footlab model makes Castellanzese the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Crema.
- Where and when is Castellanzese vs Crema played?
- Castellanzese vs Crema is played on September 27, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Giovanni Provasi, in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.