Valenciennes vs Bastia: prediction and stats
Ligue 3Regular Season - 31Kick-off on May 1, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Stade du Hainaut, Valenciennes
The Footlab model makes Valenciennes the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Bastia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Valenciennes vs Bastia?
A very open match: only 21 Elo points separate Valenciennes (1,747) and Bastia (1,768).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Valenciennes have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Bastia have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Gobelins(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Bourg-en-bresse 01(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Caen(away) | 0-4 | Ligue 3 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Boulogne(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Eastleigh(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Versailles(home) | 2-3 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Aubagne(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Le Puy Foot(home) | 0-2 | Ligue 3 |
| May 9, 2026 | Le Mans(home) | 0-2 | Ligue 2 |
| May 2, 2026 | Guingamp(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Valenciennes win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Bastia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2024 | Valenciennes 3-1 Bastia | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 12, 2023 | Bastia 3-0 Valenciennes | Ligue 2 |
| Mar 11, 2023 | Valenciennes 2-2 Bastia | Ligue 2 |
| Dec 30, 2022 | Bastia 1-0 Valenciennes | Ligue 2 |
| Mar 5, 2022 | Bastia 1-1 Valenciennes | Ligue 2 |
| Sep 21, 2021 | Valenciennes 2-1 Bastia | Ligue 2 |
Last archived meeting: Valenciennes vs Bastia on Jan 27, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Valenciennes score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Bastia score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valenciennes | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Bastia | 1.0 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Valenciennes sit 13th in Ligue 3 (3 points from 3 matches) and Bastia sit 12th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bastia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 13 | Valenciennes | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Valenciennes vs Bastia?
- The Footlab model makes Valenciennes the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Bastia.
- Where and when is Valenciennes vs Bastia played?
- Valenciennes vs Bastia is played on May 1, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Stade du Hainaut, in the Ligue 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.