Valenciennes vs Bastia: prediction and stats
Ligue 3Regular Season - 31Kick-off on May 1, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Stade du Hainaut, Valenciennes
The Footlab AI model makes Valenciennes the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Bastia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Valenciennes wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.7% of the 3,753 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 28, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Valenciennes vs Bastia?
A very open match: only 19 Elo points separate Valenciennes (1,772) and Bastia (1,792).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Valenciennes vs Bastia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Valenciennes
4-2-3-1- 11R. Ekra
- 8M. Rouai
- 10D. Diomande
- 21V. Marcel
- 19T. Marechal
- 27Z. Amir
- 6M. Zogba
- 22D. Goprou
- 2Derrick Abu
- 13C. Rocchia
- 1J. Louchet
Bastia
4-3-3- 7C. Rodrigues
- 13C. Melieres
- 23Erawan Garnier
- 4A. Roncaglia
- 3H. Makalou
- 22I. Monnier
- 17J. Eickmayer
- 35N. Douce
- 20G. Akueson
- 2N. Zilliox
- 1T. De Percin
Computed on October 28, 2026 at 09:52 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Valenciennes have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Bastia have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Amiens(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Versailles(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Le Puy Foot(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | La Roche VF(away) | 2-3 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Fleury 91(home) | 1-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Concarneau(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Orleans(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Gobelins(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Cannes(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Bourg-en-bresse 01(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Valenciennes wins, 2 draws, 2 Bastia wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2024 | Valenciennes 3-1 Bastia | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 12, 2023 | Bastia 3-0 Valenciennes | Ligue 2 |
| Mar 11, 2023 | Valenciennes 2-2 Bastia | Ligue 2 |
| Dec 30, 2022 | Bastia 1-0 Valenciennes | Ligue 2 |
| Mar 5, 2022 | Bastia 1-1 Valenciennes | Ligue 2 |
| Sep 21, 2021 | Valenciennes 2-1 Bastia | Ligue 2 |
Last archived meeting: Valenciennes vs Bastia on Jan 27, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Valenciennes score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Bastia score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valenciennes | 1.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Bastia | 1.0 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Valenciennes sit 14th in Ligue 3 (9 points from 10 matches) and Bastia sit 13th (12 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bastia | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 12 |
| 14 | Valenciennes | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 9 |
A question about Valenciennes vs Bastia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Valenciennes vs Bastia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Valenciennes the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Bastia.
- Where and when is Valenciennes vs Bastia played?
- Valenciennes vs Bastia is played on May 1, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Stade du Hainaut, in the Ligue 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.