Valladolid vs Castellón: prediction and stats
Segunda DivisiónRegular Season - 14Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Valladolid
The Footlab AI model makes Castellón the favourite at 54%, against 23% for a draw and 23% for Valladolid. The most likely score is 1-1. If Castellón wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,461 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Valladolid vs Castellón?
Castellón starts as the favourite with a 191-point Elo edge (2,107 vs 1,916).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Valladolid vs Castellón
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Valladolid
4-1-3-2- 19Adrian Arnuncio
- 30Víctor Fernández
- 21J. Ponceau
- 24S. Jurić
- 8T. Ojeda
- 23T. Abed
- 27Iván Garriel
- 15Pablo Tomeo
- 14Iván Alejo
- 4David Torres
- 1Álvaro Aceves
Castellón
4-4-2- 10Israel Suero
- 16A. Jakobsen
- 8Barri
- 14Iñigo Córdoba
- 6M. Orozco
- 25J. Vlak
- 5Alberto Jiménez
- 4A. Sienra
- 22J. Mellot
- 18Pablo Santiago
- 13R. Matthys
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 03:13 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Valladolid have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Castellón have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2026 | Leganes(home) | 4-3 | Segunda División |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Covadonga(away) | 1-0 | Copa del Rey |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Granada CF(away) | 1-2 | Segunda División |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Eldense(home) | 2-3 | Segunda División |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Albacete(home) | 5-0 | Segunda División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Burgos(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Conquense(away) | 3-0 | Copa del Rey |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Sporting Gijon(home) | 4-0 | Segunda División |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Las Palmas(away) | 3-0 | Segunda División |
| Oct 11, 2026 | FC Andorra(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Valladolid win, 0 draws, 1 Castellón win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2026 | Valladolid 0-4 Castellón | Segunda División |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Castellón 0-1 Valladolid | Segunda División |
Last archived meeting: Valladolid vs Castellón on Feb 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Valladolid score 1.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Castellón score 1.8 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid | 1.9 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Castellón | 1.8 | 0.5 | 9 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Valladolid sit 13th in Segunda División (15 points from 12 matches) and Castellón sit 1st (27 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 5 | 27 |
| 13 | Valladolid | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 19 | 15 |
A question about Valladolid vs Castellón?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Valladolid vs Castellón?
- The Footlab AI model makes Castellón the favourite at 54%, against 23% for a draw and 23% for Valladolid.
- Where and when is Valladolid vs Castellón played?
- Valladolid vs Castellón is played on November 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.