Pavia vs Pistoiese: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 25Kick-off on February 21, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Pistoiese the favourite at 54%, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Pavia. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,768 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pavia vs Pistoiese?
Pistoiese starts as the favourite with a 274-point Elo edge (1,934 vs 1,660).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Pavia vs Pistoiese
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Pavia
Not enough data to predict the Pavia lineup.
Pistoiese
Not enough data to predict the Pistoiese lineup.
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 11:10 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pavia have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Pistoiese have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Pistoiese(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Varesina(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(home) | 1-3 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Correggese(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Arconatese(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Pavia(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Correggese(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Sestri Levante(away) | 0-1 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | USD Casatese(away) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(home) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Pavia wins, 0 draws, 1 Pistoiese win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Pistoiese 1-0 Pavia | Serie D - Girone D |
How many goals should we expect?
Pavia score 0.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Pistoiese score 1.7 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavia | 0.9 | 1.4 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Pistoiese | 1.7 | 0.5 | 10 | 3/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pavia sit 11th in Serie D - Girone D (8 points from 8 matches) and Pistoiese sit 1st (24 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistoiese | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 24 |
| 11 | Pavia | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 8 |
A question about Pavia vs Pistoiese?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pavia vs Pistoiese?
- The Footlab AI model makes Pistoiese the favourite at 54%, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Pavia.
- Where and when is Pavia vs Pistoiese played?
- Pavia vs Pistoiese is played on February 21, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC), in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.