Vegalta Sendai vs Tochigi City: prediction and stats
Emperor Cup2nd RoundKick-off on August 26, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Yurtec Stadium Sendai, Sendai
The Footlab model makes Vegalta Sendai the favourite at 65%, against 19% for a draw and 16% for Tochigi City. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vegalta Sendai vs Tochigi City?
A very open match: only 60 Elo points separate Vegalta Sendai (1,881) and Tochigi City (1,821).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vegalta Sendai have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Tochigi City have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Vanraure Hachinohe(away) | 2-0 | J2 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Oita Trinita(home) | 0-0 | J2 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Fujieda MYFC(away) | 0-2 | J2 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Kashima(away) | 0-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Kataller Toyama(home) | 1-1 | J2/J3 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sagan Tosu(away) | 3-1 | J2 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Vanraure Hachinohe(home) | 5-0 | J2 League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Montedio Yamagata(away) | 0-2 | J2 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Cerezo Osaka(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Biwako Shiga(home) | 3-1 | J2/J3 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Vegalta Sendai win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Tochigi City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Vegalta Sendai 5-0 Tochigi City | J2/J3 League |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Tochigi City 1-4 Vegalta Sendai | J2/J3 League |
Last archived meeting: Vegalta Sendai vs Tochigi City on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Vegalta Sendai score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Tochigi City score 1.6 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vegalta Sendai | 1.5 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Tochigi City | 1.6 | 1.5 | 3 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vegalta Sendai vs Tochigi City?
- The Footlab model makes Vegalta Sendai the favourite at 65%, against 19% for a draw and 16% for Tochigi City.
- Where and when is Vegalta Sendai vs Tochigi City played?
- Vegalta Sendai vs Tochigi City is played on August 26, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Yurtec Stadium Sendai, in the Emperor Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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