Where and when is VfB Lübeck vs St. Pauli II played?

VfB Lübeck vs St. Pauli II is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Dietmar-Scholze-Stadion an der Lohmühle, in the Regionalliga - Nord.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

VfB Lübeck vs St. Pauli II: prediction and stats

Regionalliga - NordNorth - 14Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Dietmar-Scholze-Stadion an der Lohmühle, Lübeck

VfB Lübeck

St. Pauli II

The Footlab model makes VfB Lübeck the favourite at 60%, against 21% for a draw and 19% for St. Pauli II. The most likely score is 2-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win VfB Lübeck vs St. Pauli II?

VfB Lübeck starts as the favourite with a 142-point Elo edge (1,902 vs 1,761).

VfB Lübeck win60 %

Draw21 %

St. Pauli II win19 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, VfB Lübeck have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; St. Pauli II have 3, 5 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

VfB Lübeck
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 15, 2026	Phönix Lübeck(away)	0-4	Regionalliga - Nord
Aug 11, 2026	VfB Oldenburg(home)	1-1	Regionalliga - Nord
Aug 8, 2026	Atlas Delmenhorst(away)	0-2	Regionalliga - Nord
Aug 4, 2026	Phönix L. II(home)	3-1	Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein
Aug 1, 2026	Heider SV(away)	3-1	Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein

St. Pauli II
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 16, 2026	Werder Bremen II(home)	2-1	Regionalliga - Nord
Aug 12, 2026	SSV Jeddeloh(away)	0-2	Regionalliga - Nord
Aug 9, 2026	Bremer SV(home)	0-1	Regionalliga - Nord
Aug 2, 2026	Todesfelde(away)	4-6	Regionalliga - Nord
Jul 26, 2026	Eintracht Norderstedt(away)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 VfB Lübeck win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 St. Pauli II win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Nov 29, 2025	St. Pauli II 1-1 VfB Lübeck	Regionalliga - Nord
Oct 28, 2025	VfB Lübeck 1-1 St. Pauli II	Regionalliga - Nord
Dec 14, 2024	VfB Lübeck 2-0 St. Pauli II	Regionalliga - Nord
Oct 29, 2024	St. Pauli II 1-3 VfB Lübeck	Regionalliga - Nord
Mar 19, 2023	St. Pauli II 2-1 VfB Lübeck	Regionalliga - Nord
Sep 18, 2022	VfB Lübeck 1-1 St. Pauli II	Regionalliga - Nord

Last archived meeting: St. Pauli II vs VfB Lübeck on Nov 29, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

VfB Lübeck score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; St. Pauli II score 1.2 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
VfB Lübeck	1.3	1.3	2	9/15	6/15
St. Pauli II	1.2	1.9	1	10/15	6/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

VfB Lübeck sit 16th in Regionalliga - Nord (2 points from 4 matches) and St. Pauli II sit 14th (3 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
14	St. Pauli II	4	1	0	3	6	10	3
16	VfB Lübeck	4	0	2	2	2	8	2

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for VfB Lübeck vs St. Pauli II?: The Footlab model makes VfB Lübeck the favourite at 60%, against 21% for a draw and 19% for St. Pauli II.
Where and when is VfB Lübeck vs St. Pauli II played?: VfB Lübeck vs St. Pauli II is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Dietmar-Scholze-Stadion an der Lohmühle, in the Regionalliga - Nord.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.