Match

VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05: prediction and stats

DFB PokalRound of 32Kick-off on October 27, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Bochum

VfL BochumFSV Mainz 05

The Footlab AI model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 79%, against 13% for a draw and 8% for VfL Bochum. The most likely score is 0-3.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.9% of the 3,337 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05?

FSV Mainz 05 starts as the favourite with a 188-point Elo edge (2,163 vs 1,975).

8%13%79%
VfL Bochum winDrawFSV Mainz 05 win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

VfL Bochum

4-2-3-1
  1. 33P. Hofmann
  1. 34T. Meyer
  2. 23K. Miyoshi
  3. 17G. Holtmann
  4. 24M. Pannewig
  5. 7C. Rasmussen
  1. 15M. Steinwender
  2. 32M. Wittek
  3. 2S. Klaiber
  4. 5K. Mets
  1. 1T. Horn

FSV Mainz 05

3-5-2
  1. 9P. Tietz
  2. 23S. Becker
  1. 10N. Amiri
  2. 19A. Caci
  3. 2P. Mwene
  4. 6K. Sano
  5. 7Lee Jae-Sung
  1. 4S. Posch
  2. 48K. Potulski
  3. 21D. da Costa
  1. 1A. Schwolow

Computed on October 25, 2026 at 09:11 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, VfL Bochum have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; FSV Mainz 05 have 10, 2 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

VfL Bochum
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 23, 2026VfL Wolfsburg(home)1-12. Bundesliga
Oct 17, 20261. FC Kaiserslautern(away)0-22. Bundesliga
Oct 11, 2026Arminia Bielefeld(home)0-12. Bundesliga
Oct 2, 2026VfL Osnabrück(home)4-1Friendlies Clubs
Sep 20, 2026Hannover 96(away)1-22. Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 24, 2026Werder Bremen(home)2-3Bundesliga
Oct 17, 2026FC Schalke 04(away)1-0Bundesliga
Oct 10, 2026Bayer Leverkusen(home)3-4Bundesliga
Oct 3, 2026Waldhof Mannheim(away)3-0Friendlies Clubs
Sep 19, 2026Borussia Mönchengladbach(away)4-3Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 VfL Bochum wins, 1 draw, 5 FSV Mainz 05 wins.

DateScoreCompetition
May 10, 2025VfL Bochum 1-4 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Jan 11, 2025FSV Mainz 05 2-0 VfL BochumBundesliga
Mar 16, 2024FSV Mainz 05 2-0 VfL BochumBundesliga
Oct 27, 2023VfL Bochum 2-2 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Jan 28, 2023FSV Mainz 05 5-2 VfL BochumBundesliga
Aug 6, 2022VfL Bochum 1-2 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05 on May 10, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

VfL Bochum score 1.0 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; FSV Mainz 05 score 3.0 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 75% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
VfL Bochum1.01.037/154/15
FSV Mainz 053.01.287/1512/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

A question about VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05?
The Footlab AI model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 79%, against 13% for a draw and 8% for VfL Bochum.
Where and when is VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05 played?
VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05 is played on October 27, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, in the DFB Pokal.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 75% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: VfL Bochum and FSV Mainz 05

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