Match

SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 30, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC)URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg

SV ElversbergFSV Mainz 05

The Footlab AI model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for SV Elversberg. The most likely score is 1-1. If FSV Mainz 05 wins, the most likely score is 1-2.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.8% of the 3,886 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 30, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?

A very open match: only 48 Elo points separate SV Elversberg (2,099) and FSV Mainz 05 (2,147).

35%25%40%
SV Elversberg winDrawFSV Mainz 05 win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

SV Elversberg

4-2-3-1
  1. 42D. Mokwa
  1. 8Ł. Poręba
  2. 25L. Petkov
  3. 43F. Keidel
  4. 7M. Krattenmacher
  5. 17F. Schmahl
  1. 21L. Günther
  2. 19L. Pinckert
  3. 31M. Rohr
  4. 30J. Gyamerah
  1. 20N. Kristof

Known absences

  • T. ZimmerschiedOut · Ankle injury
  • L. SeifertDoubtful · Ankle injury
  • Noah DarvichDoubtful · Hamstring injury

FSV Mainz 05

3-5-2
  1. 9P. Tietz
  2. 23S. Becker
  1. 2P. Mwene
  2. 6K. Sano
  3. 7Lee Jae-Sung
  4. 10N. Amiri
  5. 19A. Caci
  1. 4S. Posch
  2. 48K. Potulski
  3. 21D. da Costa
  1. 1A. Schwolow

Known absences

  • D. KohrOut · Foot injury
  • S. Katompa MvumpaOut · Fracture
  • O. RuoppiDoubtful · Knee injury

Computed on October 30, 2026 at 10:38 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, SV Elversberg have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; FSV Mainz 05 have 9, 2 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

SV Elversberg
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 27, 2026SV Darmstadt 98(home)0-2DFB Pokal
Oct 24, 2026RB Leipzig(away)0-4Bundesliga
Oct 17, 2026FC Augsburg(home)4-3Bundesliga
Oct 10, 2026Union Berlin(away)0-1Bundesliga
Sep 20, 2026FC Schalke 04(away)0-0Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 27, 2026VfL Bochum(away)0-2DFB Pokal
Oct 24, 2026Werder Bremen(home)2-3Bundesliga
Oct 17, 2026FC Schalke 04(away)1-0Bundesliga
Oct 10, 2026Bayer Leverkusen(home)3-4Bundesliga
Oct 3, 2026Waldhof Mannheim(away)3-0Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 0 SV Elversberg wins, 1 draw, 1 FSV Mainz 05 win.

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 12, 2023SV Elversberg 0-1 FSV Mainz 05DFB Pokal
Aug 8, 2021SV Elversberg 2-2 FSV Mainz 05DFB Pokal

Last archived meeting: SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 on Aug 12, 2023

How many goals should we expect?

SV Elversberg score 1.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; FSV Mainz 05 score 2.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
SV Elversberg1.91.7210/159/15
FSV Mainz 052.71.386/1511/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

SV Elversberg sit 8th in Bundesliga (10 points from 7 matches) and FSV Mainz 05 sit 7th (10 points from 7 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
7FSV Mainz 057313161310
8SV Elversberg7313121510

A question about SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?
The Footlab AI model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for SV Elversberg.
Where and when is SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 played?
SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 is played on October 30, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: SV Elversberg and FSV Mainz 05

Ready to know everything about football?