Notaresco vs Atletico Ascoli: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 16Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Vincenzo Savini, Notaresco
The Footlab model makes Notaresco the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Atletico Ascoli. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Notaresco vs Atletico Ascoli?
A very open match: only 18 Elo points separate Notaresco (1,739) and Atletico Ascoli (1,756).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Notaresco have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Atletico Ascoli have 5, 7 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Teramo(away) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone F |
| May 10, 2026 | Ancona(away) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| May 3, 2026 | Ancona(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Victor San Marino(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Termoli Calcio(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Pineto(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Teramo(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| May 3, 2026 | Teramo(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Sammaurese(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Fossombrone(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Notaresco win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Atletico Ascoli win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | Atletico Ascoli 0-0 Notaresco | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Notaresco 1-1 Atletico Ascoli | Serie D - Girone F |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Atletico Ascoli 1-2 Notaresco | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Notaresco 1-2 Atletico Ascoli | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Notaresco 0-1 Atletico Ascoli | Serie D - Girone F |
| Dec 17, 2023 | Atletico Ascoli 1-1 Notaresco | Serie D - Girone F |
Last archived meeting: Atletico Ascoli vs Notaresco on Jan 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Notaresco score 1.4 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Ascoli score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notaresco | 1.4 | 1.0 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Atletico Ascoli | 1.5 | 1.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Notaresco sit 5th in Serie D - Girone F (51 points from 34 matches) and Atletico Ascoli sit 4th (55 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Atletico Ascoli | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 55 | 34 | 55 |
| 5 | Notaresco | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 43 | 31 | 51 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Notaresco vs Atletico Ascoli?
- The Footlab model makes Notaresco the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Atletico Ascoli.
- Where and when is Notaresco vs Atletico Ascoli played?
- Notaresco vs Atletico Ascoli is played on December 13, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Vincenzo Savini, in the Serie D - Girone F.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.