Notaresco vs Atletico Ascoli: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 16Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Vincenzo Savini, Notaresco
The Footlab AI model makes Notaresco the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Atletico Ascoli. The most likely score is 1-1. If Notaresco wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,864 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Notaresco vs Atletico Ascoli?
A very open match: only 2 Elo points separate Notaresco (1,760) and Atletico Ascoli (1,757).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Notaresco vs Atletico Ascoli
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Notaresco
5-3-2- 10P. Banegas
- 17A. Mancini
- 9Mateus Ribeiro
- 7L. Marchionni
- 4L. Bianciardi
- 6I. Speranza
- 33M. Gallo
- 24R. Di Stefano
- 5G. Colombatti
- 13J. Di Saverio
- 1K. Shiba
Atletico Ascoli
Not enough data to predict the Atletico Ascoli lineup.
Computed on October 20, 2026 at 07:22 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Notaresco have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Atletico Ascoli have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Maceratese(home) | 5-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Recanatese(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Montecchio Gallo(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Pietralunga(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Foligno Calcio(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Lanciano FC(home) | 5-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Vigor Senigallia(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Fossombrone(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Real Giulianova(away) | 2-4 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sporting Trestina(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Notaresco win, 3 draws, 2 Atletico Ascoli wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | Atletico Ascoli 0-0 Notaresco | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Notaresco 1-1 Atletico Ascoli | Serie D - Girone F |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Atletico Ascoli 1-2 Notaresco | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Notaresco 1-2 Atletico Ascoli | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Notaresco 0-1 Atletico Ascoli | Serie D - Girone F |
| Dec 17, 2023 | Atletico Ascoli 1-1 Notaresco | Serie D - Girone F |
Last archived meeting: Atletico Ascoli vs Notaresco on Jan 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Notaresco score 1.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Ascoli score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notaresco | 1.6 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Atletico Ascoli | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Notaresco sit 5th in Serie D - Girone F (14 points from 8 matches) and Atletico Ascoli sit 7th (13 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Notaresco | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 14 |
| 7 | Atletico Ascoli | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 13 |
A question about Notaresco vs Atletico Ascoli?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Notaresco vs Atletico Ascoli?
- The Footlab AI model makes Notaresco the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Atletico Ascoli.
- Where and when is Notaresco vs Atletico Ascoli played?
- Notaresco vs Atletico Ascoli is played on December 13, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Vincenzo Savini, in the Serie D - Girone F.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.