Villanovense vs Moralo: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Group 14 - 18Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Villanovense, Villanueva de la Serena
The Footlab model makes Moralo the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Villanovense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Villanovense vs Moralo?
A very open match: only 69 Elo points separate Villanovense (1,809) and Moralo (1,878).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Villanovense have 7 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats; Moralo have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | Cacereño(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Jaraíz(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 3, 2026 | Montehermoso(away) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Jerez(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Cabeza Buey(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Badajoz(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 31, 2026 | Badajoz(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 23, 2026 | Azuaga(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 17, 2026 | Azuaga(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 10, 2026 | Don Benito(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Villanovense win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Moralo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Moralo 3-0 Villanovense | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Villanovense 0-1 Moralo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Feb 23, 2020 | Villanovense 4-0 Moralo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 6, 2019 | Moralo 1-1 Villanovense | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
Last archived meeting: Moralo vs Villanovense on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Villanovense score 1.4 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Moralo score 1.3 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villanovense | 1.4 | 1.4 | 4 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Moralo | 1.3 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Villanovense sit 8th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 (53 points from 34 matches) and Moralo sit 3rd (62 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Moralo | 34 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 54 | 32 | 62 |
| 8 | Villanovense | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 45 | 36 | 53 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Villanovense vs Moralo?
- The Footlab model makes Moralo the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Villanovense.
- Where and when is Villanovense vs Moralo played?
- Villanovense vs Moralo is played on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Villanovense, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.