Villarreal vs Athletic Club: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 31Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal
The Footlab model makes Villarreal the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Athletic Club. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Villarreal vs Athletic Club?
Villarreal starts as the favourite with a 123-point Elo edge (2,175 vs 2,052).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Villarreal have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Athletic Club have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Galatasaray(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Levante(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lens(away) | 1-3 | Como Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sevilla(home) | 1-3 | La Liga |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Zaragoza(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Atalanta(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Burgos(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Villarreal win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Athletic Club win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Athletic Club 1-2 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Villarreal 1-0 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Villarreal 0-0 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Athletic Club 2-0 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Apr 14, 2024 | Athletic Club 1-1 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Nov 5, 2023 | Villarreal 2-3 Athletic Club | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Athletic Club vs Villarreal on Apr 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Villarreal score 2.0 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Athletic Club score 2.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 2.0 | 1.4 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Athletic Club | 2.3 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Villarreal sit 9th in La Liga (2 points from 2 matches) and Athletic Club sit 20th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Villarreal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 20 | Athletic Club | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Villarreal vs Athletic Club?
- The Footlab model makes Villarreal the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Athletic Club.
- Where and when is Villarreal vs Athletic Club played?
- Villarreal vs Athletic Club is played on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de la Cerámica, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.