Osasuna vs Real Madrid: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 31Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Sadar, Iruñea
The Footlab model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Osasuna. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Osasuna vs Real Madrid?
Real Madrid starts as the favourite with a 285-point Elo edge (2,339 vs 2,054).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Osasuna have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Real Madrid have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Levante(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Al Ain(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Napoli(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Espanyol(away) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Schalke 04(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ferencvarosi TC(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Fiorentina(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Osasuna win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Real Madrid win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Osasuna 2-1 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Aug 19, 2025 | Real Madrid 1-0 Osasuna | La Liga |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Osasuna 1-1 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Real Madrid 4-0 Osasuna | La Liga |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Osasuna 2-4 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Oct 7, 2023 | Real Madrid 4-0 Osasuna | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Osasuna vs Real Madrid on Feb 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Osasuna score 1.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Real Madrid score 2.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | 1.1 | 1.4 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Real Madrid | 2.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Osasuna sit 12th in La Liga (1 points from 1 matches) and Real Madrid sit 6th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Osasuna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Osasuna vs Real Madrid?
- The Footlab model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Osasuna.
- Where and when is Osasuna vs Real Madrid played?
- Osasuna vs Real Madrid is played on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Sadar, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.