Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 31Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid
The Footlab AI model makes Rayo Vallecano the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Real Sociedad. The most likely score is 1-1. If Rayo Vallecano wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 3,263 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad?
A very open match: only 46 Elo points separate Rayo Vallecano (2,123) and Real Sociedad (2,169).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Rayo Vallecano
4-3-3- 10Sergio Camello
- 18Álvaro García
- 19Jorge de Frutos
- 8Unai López
- 6P. Ciss
- 4Pedro Díaz
- 24F. Lejeune
- 17Adrià Pedrosa
- 15Mujaid Sadick
- 20I. Balliu
- 25E. Audero
Real Sociedad
4-4-2- 10Mikel Oyarzabal
- 24L. Sučić
- 18Carlos Soler
- 4Jon Gorrotxategi
- 11Gonçalo Guedes
- 7Barrenetxea
- 6Jon Martín
- 19M. Sarr
- 17Sergio Gómez
- 22Héctor Fort
- 1Álex Remiro
Computed on October 24, 2026 at 07:33 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rayo Vallecano have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Real Sociedad have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Elche(home) | 0-3 | La Liga |
| Oct 19, 2026 | Getafe(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Osasuna(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Real Madrid(away) | 1-4 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | Lillestrom(away) | 6-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Malaga(away) | 5-2 | La Liga |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Union St. Gilloise(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(home) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 3-2 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Rayo Vallecano wins, 3 draws, 1 Real Sociedad win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano 3-3 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Real Sociedad 0-1 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Rayo Vallecano 2-2 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Jan 16, 2025 | Real Sociedad 3-1 Rayo Vallecano | Copa del Rey |
| Aug 18, 2024 | Real Sociedad 1-2 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Jan 27, 2024 | Real Sociedad 0-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rayo Vallecano score 1.3 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Real Sociedad score 1.9 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 1.3 | 2.1 | 0 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
| Real Sociedad | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rayo Vallecano sit 17th in La Liga (9 points from 9 matches) and Real Sociedad sit 5th (16 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 16 |
| 17 | Rayo Vallecano | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 20 | 9 |
A question about Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad?
- The Footlab AI model makes Rayo Vallecano the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Real Sociedad.
- Where and when is Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad played?
- Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad is played on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Vallecas, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.