Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 31Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid
The Footlab model makes Rayo Vallecano the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Real Sociedad. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad?
A very open match: only 3 Elo points separate Rayo Vallecano (2,095) and Real Sociedad (2,098).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rayo Vallecano have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Real Sociedad have 2, 6 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Alaves(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Charleroi(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Feyenoord(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | 1. FC Köln(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Toulouse(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Aston Villa(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Rayo Vallecano win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Real Sociedad win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano 3-3 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Real Sociedad 0-1 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Rayo Vallecano 2-2 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Jan 16, 2025 | Real Sociedad 3-1 Rayo Vallecano | Copa del Rey |
| Aug 18, 2024 | Real Sociedad 1-2 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Jan 27, 2024 | Real Sociedad 0-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rayo Vallecano score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Real Sociedad score 1.5 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Real Sociedad | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rayo Vallecano sit 15th in La Liga (1 points from 2 matches) and Real Sociedad sit 19th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 19 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad?
- The Footlab model makes Rayo Vallecano the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Real Sociedad.
- Where and when is Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad played?
- Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad is played on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Vallecas, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.