Waalwijk vs Helmond Sport: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 28Kick-off on February 26, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk
The Footlab model makes Waalwijk the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Helmond Sport. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Waalwijk vs Helmond Sport?
Waalwijk starts as the favourite with a 168-point Elo edge (1,750 vs 1,582).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Waalwijk have 3 wins, 8 draws and 4 defeats; Helmond Sport have 2, 7 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Helmond Sport(away) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Dordrecht(home) | 2-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Vitesse(away) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Kifisia(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Patro Eisden(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Waalwijk(home) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Roda(away) | 1-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | De Graafschap(home) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | St. Truiden(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Gemert(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Waalwijk win(s), 4 draw(s), 0 Helmond Sport win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Helmond Sport 1-1 Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Helmond Sport 2-2 Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Waalwijk 1-1 Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie |
| Mar 22, 2019 | Waalwijk 2-1 Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie |
| Nov 17, 2018 | Helmond Sport 0-2 Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie |
| Apr 28, 2018 | Helmond Sport 2-2 Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie |
Last archived meeting: Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk on Aug 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Waalwijk score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Helmond Sport score 0.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waalwijk | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 6/15 |
| Helmond Sport | 0.8 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Waalwijk sit 14th in Eerste Divisie (3 points from 3 matches) and Helmond Sport sit 16th (2 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Waalwijk | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | Waalwijk | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 16 | Helmond Sport | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 16 | Helmond Sport | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Waalwijk vs Helmond Sport?
- The Footlab model makes Waalwijk the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Helmond Sport.
- Where and when is Waalwijk vs Helmond Sport played?
- Waalwijk vs Helmond Sport is played on February 26, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Mandemakers Stadion, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.