Waalwijk vs MVV: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 18, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk
The Footlab model makes Waalwijk the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for MVV. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Waalwijk vs MVV?
Waalwijk starts as the favourite with a 135-point Elo edge (1,763 vs 1,628).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Waalwijk have 3 wins, 8 draws and 4 defeats; MVV have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Helmond Sport(away) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Dordrecht(home) | 2-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Vitesse(away) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Kifisia(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Patro Eisden(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | FC Volendam(home) | 1-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(away) | 3-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Jong Utrecht(home) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Patro Eisden(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | KAA Gent II(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Waalwijk win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 MVV win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2026 | MVV 1-3 Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie |
| Nov 25, 2025 | Waalwijk 1-0 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| Mar 15, 2019 | MVV 1-4 Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie |
| Dec 7, 2018 | Waalwijk 3-1 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| Mar 16, 2018 | Waalwijk 1-1 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| Nov 3, 2017 | MVV 0-0 Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Waalwijk score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; MVV score 1.2 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waalwijk | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 6/15 |
| MVV | 1.2 | 1.6 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Waalwijk sit 14th in Eerste Divisie (3 points from 3 matches) and MVV sit 2nd (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | MVV | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 2 | MVV | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 14 | Waalwijk | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | Waalwijk | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Waalwijk vs MVV?
- The Footlab model makes Waalwijk the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for MVV.
- Where and when is Waalwijk vs MVV played?
- Waalwijk vs MVV is played on September 18, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Mandemakers Stadion, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.