Jong Ajax vs MVV: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 19Kick-off on December 11, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Sportpark De Toekomst, Amsterdam-Duivendrecht
The Footlab AI model makes MVV the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Jong Ajax. The most likely score is 1-1. If MVV wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Jong Ajax vs MVV?
A very open match: only 69 Elo points separate Jong Ajax (1,526) and MVV (1,595).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Jong Ajax vs MVV
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Jong Ajax
4-3-3- 9E. Ünüvar
- 11P. Nash
- 7Leo Salazar
- 8Mohamed Abdalla
- 10Alejandro Monserrate
- 6M. Verkuijl
- 4M. Muzungu
- 2R. van de Pavert
- 5Sinclair de Falco
- 3G. Spina
- 1C. Setford
MVV
4-2-3-1- 9T. Vinogradac
- 7L. Daneels
- 10O. Dumont
- 16R. Klaasen
- 18E. Sierra
- 24N. El Hamdaoui
- 6F. Dicke
- 17S. Wegen
- 22Sven Bouland
- 21D. Asante
- 1H. Wentges
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 05:24 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Jong Ajax have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; MVV have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | VVV Venlo(home) | 0-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Roda(home) | 0-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Jong Utrecht(away) | 1-6 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Waalwijk(home) | 0-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Almere City FC(away) | 1-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | NAC Breda(away) | 0-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 3, 2026 | FC OSS(away) | 1-4 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Helmond Sport(home) | 2-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Waalwijk(away) | 1-6 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Almere City FC(home) | 0-4 | Eerste Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Jong Ajax win, 2 draws, 3 MVV wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2025 | MVV 2-1 Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 29, 2025 | Jong Ajax 0-0 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| May 2, 2025 | MVV 1-0 Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 19, 2024 | Jong Ajax 0-0 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| Feb 12, 2024 | Jong Ajax 3-0 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 1, 2023 | MVV 2-1 Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Jong Ajax score 1.1 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; MVV score 1.3 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong Ajax | 1.1 | 2.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| MVV | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Jong Ajax sit 18th in Eerste Divisie (8 points from 10 matches) and MVV sit 7th (16 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | MVV | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 20 | 16 |
| 18 | Jong Ajax | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 25 | 8 |
A question about Jong Ajax vs MVV?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Jong Ajax vs MVV?
- The Footlab AI model makes MVV the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Jong Ajax.
- Where and when is Jong Ajax vs MVV played?
- Jong Ajax vs MVV is played on December 11, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Sportpark De Toekomst, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.