Warta Gorzów vs Stal Brzeg: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 3Group III - 8Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion OSiR ul. Olimpijska, Gorzów Wielkopolski
The Footlab model makes Warta Gorzów the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Stal Brzeg. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Warta Gorzów vs Stal Brzeg?
Warta Gorzów starts as the favourite with a 135-point Elo edge (1,762 vs 1,627).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Warta Gorzów have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Stal Brzeg have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Odra Bytom Odrzański(away) | 1-0 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Górnik Polkowice(home) | 0-0 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Barycz Sułów(away) | 2-2 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Carina Gubin(home) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | ROW Rybnik(away) | 1-5 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Rakow II(home) | 3-0 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Polonia Nysa(away) | 2-3 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Sparta Katowice(home) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ślęza Wrocław(home) | 5-1 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Goczałkowice Zdrój(home) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Warta Gorzów win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Stal Brzeg win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2025 | Warta Gorzów 2-1 Stal Brzeg | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Stal Brzeg 1-3 Warta Gorzów | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Jun 3, 2023 | Stal Brzeg 2-0 Warta Gorzów | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Nov 5, 2022 | Warta Gorzów 1-1 Stal Brzeg | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Apr 30, 2022 | Stal Brzeg 2-1 Warta Gorzów | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Sep 25, 2021 | Warta Gorzów 1-2 Stal Brzeg | III Liga - Group 3 |
Last archived meeting: Warta Gorzów vs Stal Brzeg on Mar 22, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Warta Gorzów score 0.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Stal Brzeg score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warta Gorzów | 0.9 | 1.4 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Stal Brzeg | 1.5 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Warta Gorzów sit 10th in III Liga - Group 3 (8 points from 5 matches) and Stal Brzeg sit 7th (8 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Stal Brzeg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 8 |
| 10 | Warta Gorzów | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 8 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Warta Gorzów vs Stal Brzeg?
- The Footlab model makes Warta Gorzów the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Stal Brzeg.
- Where and when is Warta Gorzów vs Stal Brzeg played?
- Warta Gorzów vs Stal Brzeg is played on September 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion OSiR ul. Olimpijska, in the III Liga - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 12, 2026ROW RybnikvsZagłębie Lubin II
- Sep 12, 2026SKRA CzęstochowavsZaglebie Sosnowiec
- Sep 12, 2026KluczborkvsŚlęza Wrocław
- Sep 12, 2026Miedź Legnica IIvsGoczałkowice Zdrój
- Sep 12, 2026Carina GubinvsOdra Bytom Odrzański
- Sep 12, 2026Karkonosze Jelenia GóravsStilon Gorzów
- Sep 12, 2026Barycz SułówvsGórnik Polkowice
- Sep 12, 2026SłowianinvsSparta Katowice