Derby vs Bolton: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 15Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Pride Park Stadium, Derby
The Footlab AI model makes Bolton the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Derby. The most likely score is 1-1. If Bolton wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 3,172 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Derby vs Bolton?
A very open match: only 70 Elo points separate Derby (1,911) and Bolton (1,981).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Derby vs Bolton
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Derby
4-2-3-1- 9C. Morris
- 11S. Szmodics
- 8B. Clark
- 4D. Ozoh
- 16M. Fuseini
- 20A. Mowatt
- 28D. Sanderson
- 26R. Hedges
- 23J. Ward
- 6S. Langås
- 31J. Vickers
Bolton
4-2-3-1- 9T. Bair
- 8J. Sheehan
- 11T. Gale
- 21E. Erhahon
- 20Ruben Rodrigues
- 7K. Dong
- 22Gaizka Larrazabal
- 18E. Toal
- 14A. Famewo
- 5L. Brunt
- 31G. Bazunu
Computed on October 24, 2026 at 01:12 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Derby have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Bolton have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Stoke City(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Oct 14, 2026 | QPR(away) | 1-4 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | Middlesbrough(home) | 1-5 | Championship |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Southampton(away) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Wolves(away) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Stoke City(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 4-3 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Derby wins, 1 draw, 2 Bolton wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2024 | Derby 1-0 Bolton | League One |
| Sep 2, 2023 | Bolton 2-1 Derby | League One |
| Jan 21, 2023 | Derby 2-1 Bolton | League One |
| Dec 27, 2022 | Bolton 0-0 Derby | League One |
| Apr 13, 2019 | Derby 4-0 Bolton | Championship |
| Sep 29, 2018 | Bolton 1-0 Derby | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Derby score 0.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Bolton score 1.2 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Bolton | 1.2 | 1.7 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Derby sit 23rd in Championship (6 points from 11 matches) and Bolton sit 17th (14 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bolton | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 23 | 14 |
| 23 | Derby | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 20 | 6 |
A question about Derby vs Bolton?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Derby vs Bolton?
- The Footlab AI model makes Bolton the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Derby.
- Where and when is Derby vs Bolton played?
- Derby vs Bolton is played on November 7, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Pride Park Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.