Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 2Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC)Sky Stadium, Wellington
The Footlab AI model makes Wellington Phoenix the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Central Coast Mariners. The most likely score is 1-1. If Wellington Phoenix wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners?
A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Wellington Phoenix (1,726) and Central Coast Mariners (1,738).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Wellington Phoenix
4-4-2- 7I. Eze
- 3C. Piper
- 25K. Nagasawa
- 8P. Retre
- 20R. Najjarine
- 14A. Rufer
- 28B. Tuiloma
- 15I. Hughes
- 6T. Payne
- 18L. Kelly-Heald
- 1J. Oluwayemi
Central Coast Mariners
4-2-3-1- 22A. De Lima
- 72A. Auglah
- 9O. Lavale
- 8C. Donnell
- 37B. Brandtman
- 41Shumba Mutokoyi
- 5L. Mauragis
- 15S. Roux
- 12Noah McCann
- 26B. Tapp
- 30A. Redmayne
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:53 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Wellington Phoenix have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Central Coast Mariners have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Macarthur(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 0-2 | A-League |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(away) | 1-0 | A-League |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Brisbane Roar(away) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Vanuatu United(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Vanuatu United(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Sydney United(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Newcastle Jets(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-0 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Wellington Phoenix wins, 2 draws, 2 Central Coast Mariners wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | Wellington Phoenix 3-1 Central Coast Mariners | A-League |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Central Coast Mariners 1-1 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Wellington Phoenix 0-0 Central Coast Mariners | A-League |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Central Coast Mariners 0-3 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Central Coast Mariners 2-1 Wellington Phoenix | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Central Coast Mariners 2-1 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners on Dec 21, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Wellington Phoenix score 1.3 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Central Coast Mariners score 1.3 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wellington Phoenix | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Central Coast Mariners | 1.3 | 1.6 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Wellington Phoenix sit 8th in A-League (33 points from 26 matches) and Central Coast Mariners sit 9th (32 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 36 | 48 | 33 |
| 9 | Central Coast Mariners | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 35 | 42 | 32 |
A question about Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners?
- The Footlab AI model makes Wellington Phoenix the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Central Coast Mariners.
- Where and when is Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners played?
- Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners is played on October 25, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC) at Sky Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.