Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 2Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC)Sky Stadium, Wellington
The Footlab model makes Wellington Phoenix the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Central Coast Mariners. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners?
A very open match: only 12 Elo points separate Wellington Phoenix (1,771) and Central Coast Mariners (1,759).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Wellington Phoenix have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Central Coast Mariners have 5, 7 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Macarthur(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 0-2 | A-League |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(away) | 1-0 | A-League |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Brisbane Roar(away) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | Sydney United(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Newcastle Jets(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-0 | A-League |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Brisbane Roar(home) | 2-2 | A-League |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 1-2 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Wellington Phoenix win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Central Coast Mariners win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | Wellington Phoenix 3-1 Central Coast Mariners | A-League |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Central Coast Mariners 1-1 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Wellington Phoenix 0-0 Central Coast Mariners | A-League |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Central Coast Mariners 0-3 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Central Coast Mariners 2-1 Wellington Phoenix | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Central Coast Mariners 2-1 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners on Dec 21, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Wellington Phoenix score 1.3 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Central Coast Mariners score 1.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wellington Phoenix | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Central Coast Mariners | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Wellington Phoenix sit 8th in A-League (33 points from 26 matches) and Central Coast Mariners sit 9th (32 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 36 | 48 | 33 |
| 9 | Central Coast Mariners | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 35 | 42 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners?
- The Footlab model makes Wellington Phoenix the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Central Coast Mariners.
- Where and when is Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners played?
- Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners is played on October 25, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC) at Sky Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.