Sydney vs Adelaide United: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 2Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 AM (UTC)Allianz Stadium, Sydney
The Footlab model makes Sydney the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Adelaide United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sydney vs Adelaide United?
Sydney starts as the favourite with a 114-point Elo edge (1,926 vs 1,812).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sydney have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Adelaide United have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | SD Raiders(away) | 1-0 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Brisbane Roar(away) | 4-2 | Australia Cup |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Tottenham(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Bayswater City(away) | 5-1 | Australia Cup |
| May 23, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 0-1 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Công An Nhân Dân(home) | 0-2 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Jul 30, 2026 | South Melbourne(away) | 1-2 | Australia Cup |
| May 15, 2026 | Auckland(home) | 0-3 | A-League |
| May 9, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 2-1 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Sydney win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Adelaide United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Sydney 1-2 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Adelaide United 2-1 Sydney | A-League |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Adelaide United 2-3 Sydney | A-League |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Sydney 4-1 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Dec 20, 2024 | Adelaide United 3-3 Sydney | A-League |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Sydney 2-1 Adelaide United | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Sydney vs Adelaide United on Feb 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sydney score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Adelaide United score 1.6 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 1.4 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Adelaide United | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1 | 12/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sydney sit 5th in A-League (39 points from 26 matches) and Adelaide United sit 2nd (43 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Adelaide United | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 46 | 36 | 43 |
| 5 | Sydney | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 33 | 25 | 39 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sydney vs Adelaide United?
- The Footlab model makes Sydney the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Adelaide United.
- Where and when is Sydney vs Adelaide United played?
- Sydney vs Adelaide United is played on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 AM (UTC) at Allianz Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.