Wellington Phoenix vs Newcastle Jets: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 25Kick-off on April 17, 2027 at 05:00 AM (UTC)Sky Stadium, Wellington
The Footlab model makes Newcastle Jets the favourite at 47%, against 23% for a draw and 30% for Wellington Phoenix. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Wellington Phoenix vs Newcastle Jets?
Newcastle Jets starts as the favourite with a 119-point Elo edge (1,890 vs 1,771).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Wellington Phoenix have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Newcastle Jets have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Macarthur(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 0-2 | A-League |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(away) | 1-0 | A-League |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Brisbane Roar(away) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | Preston Lions(away) | 2-3 | Australia Cup |
| May 16, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 1-1 | A-League |
| May 9, 2026 | Sydney(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners(home) | 4-0 | A-League |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(away) | 2-2 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Wellington Phoenix win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Newcastle Jets win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | Newcastle Jets 4-1 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Wellington Phoenix 1-3 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Newcastle Jets 1-2 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Dec 28, 2024 | Wellington Phoenix 2-1 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Sep 17, 2024 | Wellington Phoenix 0-1 Newcastle Jets | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 19, 2024 | Newcastle Jets 1-1 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix on Jan 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Wellington Phoenix score 1.3 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Newcastle Jets score 1.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wellington Phoenix | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Newcastle Jets | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Wellington Phoenix sit 8th in A-League (33 points from 26 matches) and Newcastle Jets sit 1st (48 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Jets | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 55 | 39 | 48 |
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 36 | 48 | 33 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Wellington Phoenix vs Newcastle Jets?
- The Footlab model makes Newcastle Jets the favourite at 47%, against 23% for a draw and 30% for Wellington Phoenix.
- Where and when is Wellington Phoenix vs Newcastle Jets played?
- Wellington Phoenix vs Newcastle Jets is played on April 17, 2027 at 05:00 AM (UTC) at Sky Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.