Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 25Kick-off on April 17, 2027 at 09:40 AM (UTC)AAMI Park, Melbourne
The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 58%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for Adelaide United. The most likely score is 1-1. If Melbourne Victory wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,542 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 5, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United?
Melbourne Victory starts as the favourite with a 117-point Elo edge (1,814 vs 1,697).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Melbourne Victory
4-2-3-1- 44C. Nduka
- 23K. Jelacic
- 21G. May
- 8J. Valadon
- 10D. Genreau
- 11Clarismario Rodrigues
- 3J. Davidson
- 36H. Shillington
- 4P. Ziereis
- 18F. Lino
- 25J. Duncan
Adelaide United
4-3-3- 35Brody Burkitt
- 19A. Tatu
- 12J. Yull
- 55E. Alagich
- 23L. Đuzel
- 65J. Garuccio
- 4P. Kikianis
- 62F. Talladira
- 14J. Barnett
- 79F. Kasumovic
- 22J. Smits
Computed on November 5, 2026 at 07:54 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Melbourne Victory have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Adelaide United have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | Persib Bandung(home) | 1-2 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners(home) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Persib Bandung(away) | 0-2 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Melbourne City(home) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Wellington Phoenix(away) | 1-2 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Perth Glory(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Home United(home) | 0-2 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Sydney(away) | 1-2 | A-League |
| Oct 15, 2026 | BG Pathum United(away) | 2-1 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Perth Glory(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Melbourne Victory wins, 1 draw, 2 Adelaide United wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | Melbourne Victory 1-1 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Jan 17, 2026 | Adelaide United 2-1 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Melbourne Victory 2-1 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Melbourne Victory 5-3 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Jan 18, 2025 | Adelaide United 3-2 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Melbourne Victory 1-0 Adelaide United | Australia Cup |
Last archived meeting: Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United on Feb 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Melbourne Victory score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Adelaide United score 1.2 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne Victory | 1.4 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Adelaide United | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Melbourne Victory sit 9th in A-League (2 points from 3 matches) and Adelaide United sit 12th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Melbourne Victory | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 12 | Adelaide United | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
A question about Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United?
- The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 58%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for Adelaide United.
- Where and when is Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United played?
- Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United is played on April 17, 2027 at 09:40 AM (UTC) at AAMI Park, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.