Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 3Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 AM (UTC)McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
The Footlab model makes Newcastle Jets the favourite at 56%, against 21% for a draw and 23% for Wellington Phoenix. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix?
Newcastle Jets starts as the favourite with a 119-point Elo edge (1,890 vs 1,771).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newcastle Jets have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Wellington Phoenix have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | Preston Lions(away) | 2-3 | Australia Cup |
| May 16, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 1-1 | A-League |
| May 9, 2026 | Sydney(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners(home) | 4-0 | A-League |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(away) | 2-2 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Macarthur(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 0-2 | A-League |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(away) | 1-0 | A-League |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Brisbane Roar(away) | 2-1 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Newcastle Jets win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Wellington Phoenix win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | Newcastle Jets 4-1 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Wellington Phoenix 1-3 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Newcastle Jets 1-2 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Dec 28, 2024 | Wellington Phoenix 2-1 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Sep 17, 2024 | Wellington Phoenix 0-1 Newcastle Jets | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 19, 2024 | Newcastle Jets 1-1 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix on Jan 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Newcastle Jets score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Wellington Phoenix score 1.3 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle Jets | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Wellington Phoenix | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newcastle Jets sit 1st in A-League (48 points from 26 matches) and Wellington Phoenix sit 8th (33 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Jets | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 55 | 39 | 48 |
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 36 | 48 | 33 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix?
- The Footlab model makes Newcastle Jets the favourite at 56%, against 21% for a draw and 23% for Wellington Phoenix.
- Where and when is Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix played?
- Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix is played on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 AM (UTC) at McDonald Jones Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 73% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.