Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 3Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 AM (UTC)McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
The Footlab AI model makes Newcastle Jets the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Wellington Phoenix. The most likely score is 1-1. If Newcastle Jets wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.7% of the 3,889 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 30, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix?
A very open match: only 83 Elo points separate Newcastle Jets (1,813) and Wellington Phoenix (1,729).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Newcastle Jets
4-1-4-1- 9N. Vergos
- 14M. Burgess
- 43X. Bertoncello
- 6Z. Schreiber
- 27J. Recchia
- 11J. Lolley
- 23D. Wilmering
- 22J. Bertolissio
- 39T. Aquilina
- 5J. Shaughnessy
- 1J. Delianov
Known absences
- A. ReidOut · Not in squad
- Alex NassiepOut · Not in squad
- C. PrestwidgeOut · Not in squad
- M. CooperOut · Foot injury
O. FryerOut · Knee injury- O. GonzalezOut · Not in squad
- Oliver CockleOut · Not in squad
- W. KennedyOut · Not in squad
Wellington Phoenix
4-4-2- 99C. Piper
- 9R. Durán
- 25K. Nagasawa
- 8M. Anderson
- 7B. Duke
- 14A. Rufer
- 28B. Tuiloma
- 18L. Kelly-Heald
- 27M. Sheridan
- 23J. McGarry
- 13H. Gray
Known absences
F. ConchieOut · Not in squad- I. HughesOut · Not in squad
- J. SmithOut · Not in squad
Computed on October 30, 2026 at 06:02 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newcastle Jets have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Wellington Phoenix have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2026 | Kyoto Sanga(away) | 2-5 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Macarthur(home) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners(away) | 2-2 | A-League |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Gamba Osaka(home) | 1-3 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Kashima(away) | 1-7 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners(home) | 2-0 | A-League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Macarthur(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 0-2 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Newcastle Jets wins, 1 draw, 2 Wellington Phoenix wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | Newcastle Jets 4-1 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Wellington Phoenix 1-3 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Newcastle Jets 1-2 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Dec 28, 2024 | Wellington Phoenix 2-1 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Sep 17, 2024 | Wellington Phoenix 0-1 Newcastle Jets | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 19, 2024 | Newcastle Jets 1-1 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix on Jan 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Newcastle Jets score 1.7 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; Wellington Phoenix score 1.3 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle Jets | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1 | 14/15 | 11/15 |
| Wellington Phoenix | 1.3 | 1.8 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newcastle Jets sit 7th in A-League (2 points from 2 matches) and Wellington Phoenix sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Phoenix | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Newcastle Jets | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
A question about Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix?
- The Footlab AI model makes Newcastle Jets the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Wellington Phoenix.
- Where and when is Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix played?
- Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix is played on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 AM (UTC) at McDonald Jones Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.