Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz: prediction and stats
BundesligaRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Lavanttal Arena, Wolfsberg
The Footlab model makes Sturm Graz the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Wolfsberger AC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz starts as the favourite with a 114-point Elo edge (2,084 vs 1,970).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Wolfsberger AC have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Sturm Graz have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Austria Lustenau(away) | 1-2 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg(home) | 1-1 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Austria Vienna(home) | 3-0 | Bundesliga |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Lauterach(away) | 5-1 | Cup |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Velden(away) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Austria Lustenau(home) | 1-1 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | SCR Altach(home) | 1-0 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | TSV Hartberg(away) | 2-0 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Wolfsberger AC win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Sturm Graz win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Wolfsberger AC 2-2 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Sturm Graz 1-3 Wolfsberger AC | Bundesliga |
| May 24, 2025 | Sturm Graz 1-1 Wolfsberger AC | Bundesliga |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Wolfsberger AC 1-1 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Wolfsberger AC 3-0 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Sturm Graz 0-3 Wolfsberger AC | Bundesliga |
Last archived meeting: Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz on Mar 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Wolfsberger AC score 2.8 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Sturm Graz score 2.2 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsberger AC | 2.8 | 0.7 | 7 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Sturm Graz | 2.2 | 1.0 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Wolfsberger AC sit 6th in Bundesliga (4 points from 3 matches) and Sturm Graz sit 3rd (8 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sturm Graz | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Wolfsberger AC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz?
- The Footlab model makes Sturm Graz the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Wolfsberger AC.
- Where and when is Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz played?
- Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz is played on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Lavanttal Arena, in the Bundesliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.