Sturm Graz vs Celje: prediction and stats
UEFA Europa LeagueLeague Stage - 4Kick-off on November 5, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Merkur Arena, Graz
The Footlab AI model makes Sturm Graz the favourite at 67%, against 20% for a draw and 13% for Celje. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Celje?
Sturm Graz starts as the favourite with a 271-point Elo edge (2,171 vs 1,899).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sturm Graz vs Celje
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sturm Graz
4-2-3-1- 14O. Diakité
- 4J. Gorenc Stankovič
- 43Jacob Peter Hödl
- 19S. Seidl
- 39Luca Weinhandl
- 78V. Matoshi
- 2J. Quarshie
- 30P. Koller
- 28J. Heil
- 27L. Balbo
- 53D. Khudyakov
Celje
4-2-3-1- 47A. Kučys
- 19M. Zabukovnik
- 10S. Sešlar
- 91Y. Dukuly
- 7B. Verbič
- 8M. Kvesić
- 2P. Širvys
- 6A. Tutyškinas
- 11M. Avdyli
- 44Ł. Bejger
- 1Žan-Luk Leban
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:42 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sturm Graz have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Celje have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Austria Vienna(away) | 2-0 | Bundesliga |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Floridsdorfer AC(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg(away) | 0-3 | Bundesliga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Rennes(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Lask Linz(home) | 2-1 | Bundesliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Aluminij(home) | 1-0 | 1. SNL |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Mura(away) | 0-0 | 1. SNL |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Bravo(away) | 1-2 | 1. SNL |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Koper(home) | 0-1 | 1. SNL |
How many goals should we expect?
Sturm Graz score 1.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Celje score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | 1.5 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Celje | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sturm Graz sit 20th in UEFA Europa League (1 point from 1 match) and Celje sit 29th (0 points from 1 match).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 29 | Celje | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
A question about Sturm Graz vs Celje?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sturm Graz vs Celje?
- The Footlab AI model makes Sturm Graz the favourite at 67%, against 20% for a draw and 13% for Celje.
- Where and when is Sturm Graz vs Celje played?
- Sturm Graz vs Celje is played on November 5, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Merkur Arena, in the UEFA Europa League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.