Workington vs Ilkeston Town: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - NorthernRegular Season - 9Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Borough Park, Workington, Cumbria
The Footlab model makes Workington the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Ilkeston Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Workington vs Ilkeston Town?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Workington (1,689) and Ilkeston Town (1,727).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Workington have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Ilkeston Town have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | United of Manchester(away) | 2-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Avro(away) | 1-4 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Guiseley AFC(home) | 2-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Redcar Athletic(home) | 0-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gainsborough Trinity(away) | 0-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cleethorpes Town(home) | 0-3 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Warrington Town(home) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Whitby Town(away) | 0-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | AFC Emley(away) | 2-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Stockton Town(home) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Workington win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Ilkeston Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Workington 1-0 Ilkeston Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Ilkeston Town 3-2 Workington | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Ilkeston Town 1-0 Workington | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Workington 2-1 Ilkeston Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Dec 23, 2023 | Workington 4-1 Ilkeston Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 19, 2023 | Ilkeston Town 6-1 Workington | Non League Premier - Northern |
Last archived meeting: Workington vs Ilkeston Town on Feb 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Workington score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Ilkeston Town score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Workington | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Ilkeston Town | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Workington sit 19th in Non League Premier - Northern (4 points from 5 matches) and Ilkeston Town sit 13th (6 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Ilkeston Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 6 |
| 19 | Workington | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Workington vs Ilkeston Town?
- The Footlab model makes Workington the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Ilkeston Town.
- Where and when is Workington vs Ilkeston Town played?
- Workington vs Ilkeston Town is played on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Borough Park, in the Non League Premier - Northern.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 12, 2026BuryvsAFC Emley
- Sep 12, 2026Guiseley AFCvsQuorn
- Sep 12, 2026Gainsborough TrinityvsAvro
- Sep 12, 2026Hyde UnitedvsWhitby Town
- Sep 12, 2026Ashton UnitedvsCleethorpes Town
- Sep 12, 2026Bamber BridgevsAlfreton Town
- Sep 12, 2026Lancaster CityvsCurzon Ashton
- Sep 12, 2026United of ManchestervsWarrington Town