Where and when is Bury vs AFC Emley played?

Bury vs AFC Emley is played on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Gigg Lane, in the Non League Premier - Northern.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Bury vs AFC Emley: prediction and stats

Non League Premier - NorthernRegular Season - 9Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Gigg Lane, Bury, Lancashire

Bury

AFC Emley

The Footlab model makes Bury the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for AFC Emley. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Bury vs AFC Emley?

Bury starts as the favourite with a 173-point Elo edge (1,893 vs 1,720).

Bury win56 %

Draw25 %

AFC Emley win19 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bury have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; AFC Emley have 4, 6 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Bury
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Gainsborough Trinity(away)	1-0	Non League Premier - Northern
Aug 18, 2026	Guiseley AFC(away)	2-3	Non League Premier - Northern
Aug 15, 2026	Rylands(home)	1-0	Non League Premier - Northern
Aug 11, 2026	Curzon Ashton(home)	3-2	Non League Premier - Northern
Aug 8, 2026	Redcar Athletic(away)	0-0	Non League Premier - Northern

AFC Emley
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Ashton United(home)	1-1	Non League Premier - Northern
Aug 18, 2026	Leek Town(away)	2-1	Non League Premier - Northern
Aug 14, 2026	Curzon Ashton(home)	2-1	Non League Premier - Northern
Aug 11, 2026	Ilkeston Town(home)	1-2	Non League Premier - Northern
Aug 8, 2026	Hyde United(away)	0-0	Non League Premier - Northern

How many goals should we expect?

Bury score 2.0 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; AFC Emley score 1.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Bury	2.0	0.8	6	8/15	9/15
AFC Emley	1.4	1.1	4	8/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Bury sit 7th in Non League Premier - Northern (10 points from 5 matches) and AFC Emley sit 9th (8 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
7	Bury	5	3	1	1	7	5	10
9	AFC Emley	5	2	2	1	6	5	8

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Bury vs AFC Emley?: The Footlab model makes Bury the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for AFC Emley.
Where and when is Bury vs AFC Emley played?: Bury vs AFC Emley is played on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Gigg Lane, in the Non League Premier - Northern.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.