Xelajú vs Malacateco: prediction and stats
Liga NacionalRegular Season - 14Kick-off on October 15, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Mario Camposeco, Quetzaltenango
The Footlab AI model makes Xelajú the favourite at 69%, against 20% for a draw and 11% for Malacateco. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Xelajú vs Malacateco?
Xelajú starts as the favourite with a 111-point Elo edge (1,711 vs 1,600).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Xelajú vs Malacateco
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Xelajú
4-3-3- 26E. Cardoza
- 29D. Casas
- 11S. Cárdenas
- 13W. Tebalán
- 70Y. Jaen
- 16J. Cardona
- 14J. Gónzalez
- 23R. Calderon
- 18J. Castañeda
- 5E. Monreal
- 98Estuardo Santiago Sican Avila
Malacateco
4-3-3- 10J. Ochoa
- 11N. Andrade
- 29E. Quiñónes
- 17R. Meneses
- 55A. Soto
- II. de Leon
- MM. Chun
- 5J. Esqueda
- HH. Cummings
- 16A. Morales
- AA. Guzman
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 06:21 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Xelajú have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Malacateco have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Aurora(away) | 1-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Deportivo San Pedro(home) | 2-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Comunicaciones(home) | 2-3 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Antigua GFC(home) | 4-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Suchitepéquez(away) | 2-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Guastatoya(home) | 2-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Cobán Imperial(away) | 0-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Marquense(away) | 0-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Mixco(home) | 1-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Municipal(away) | 2-2 | Liga Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Xelajú wins, 1 draw, 1 Malacateco win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Malacateco 2-2 Xelajú | Liga Nacional |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Xelajú 1-0 Malacateco | Liga Nacional |
| Feb 19, 2026 | Malacateco 1-0 Xelajú | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 29, 2025 | Xelajú 3-0 Malacateco | Liga Nacional |
| Jul 20, 2025 | Malacateco 0-1 Xelajú | Liga Nacional |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Xelajú 2-1 Malacateco | Liga Nacional |
How many goals should we expect?
Xelajú score 2.0 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Malacateco score 1.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xelajú | 2.0 | 1.4 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Malacateco | 1.1 | 1.4 | 5 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Xelajú sit 1st in Liga Nacional (39 points from 22 matches) and Malacateco sit 10th (22 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Xelajú | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 34 | 19 | 39 |
| 10 | Malacateco | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 19 | 25 | 22 |
A question about Xelajú vs Malacateco?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Xelajú vs Malacateco?
- The Footlab AI model makes Xelajú the favourite at 69%, against 20% for a draw and 11% for Malacateco.
- Where and when is Xelajú vs Malacateco played?
- Xelajú vs Malacateco is played on October 15, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Mario Camposeco, in the Liga Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.