Yarud Mariupol' vs Chernihiv: prediction and stats
Persha LigaRegular Season - 14Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 09:00 AM (UTC)Stadion SKIF, Lviv
The Footlab AI model makes Yarud Mariupol' the favourite at 60%, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Chernihiv. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.7% of the 3,753 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 28, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Yarud Mariupol' vs Chernihiv?
On Elo ratings, Yarud Mariupol' has 1,774 points and Chernihiv 1,692.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Yarud Mariupol' vs Chernihiv
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Yarud Mariupol'
4-3-3- 29A. Remenyak
- 6E. Gunichev
- 9S. Kyslenko
- 10P. Orikhovskyi
- 8A. Kukharuk
- 5O. Khakhlyov
- 15O. Chornomorets
- 33V. Sydorenko
- 20O. Nikolyshyn
- 2R. Gagun
- 1V. Zhupanskyi
Chernihiv
4-3-3- 12E. Kartushov
- 11A. Novikov
- 21D. Bezborodko
- 6Y. Shalfeev
- 44D. Plakhtyr
- 55A. Romanchenko
- 20D. Fateev
- 2E. Galstyan
- 23O. Zenchenko
- 38P. Shushko
- 35M. Tatarenko
Computed on October 28, 2026 at 01:49 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Yarud Mariupol' have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Chernihiv have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | Metal Kharkiv(away) | 2-0 | Persha Liga |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Inhulets(home) | 4-1 | Persha Liga |
| Oct 11, 2026 | UCSA(away) | 2-1 | Persha Liga |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Nyva Ternopil(home) | 0-0 | Persha Liga |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Oleksandria(away) | 1-1 | Persha Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka(away) | 1-2 | Persha Liga |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Prykarpattia(away) | 1-0 | Persha Liga |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Trostianets(away) | 4-2 | Cup |
| Oct 2, 2026 | SK Poltava(away) | 2-3 | Persha Liga |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Metal Kharkiv(away) | 0-2 | Persha Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Yarud Mariupol' wins, 2 draws, 0 Chernihiv wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Chernihiv 1-4 Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Chernihiv 0-0 Yarud Mariupol' | Cup |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Yarud Mariupol' 1-0 Chernihiv | Persha Liga |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Yarud Mariupol' 3-1 Chernihiv | Persha Liga |
| Sep 13, 2023 | Chernihiv 0-1 Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga |
| May 7, 2023 | Yarud Mariupol' 1-1 Chernihiv | Persha Liga |
Last archived meeting: Chernihiv vs Yarud Mariupol' on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Yarud Mariupol' score 1.7 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Chernihiv score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yarud Mariupol' | 1.7 | 1.0 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Chernihiv | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Yarud Mariupol' sit 3rd in Persha Liga (24 points from 13 matches) and Chernihiv sit 14th (10 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Yarud Mariupol' | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 13 | 24 |
| 14 | Chernihiv | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 16 | 10 |
A question about Yarud Mariupol' vs Chernihiv?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Yarud Mariupol' vs Chernihiv?
- The Footlab AI model makes Yarud Mariupol' the favourite at 60%, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Chernihiv.
- Where and when is Yarud Mariupol' vs Chernihiv played?
- Yarud Mariupol' vs Chernihiv is played on November 1, 2026 at 09:00 AM (UTC) at Stadion SKIF, in the Persha Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.