Yarud Mariupol' vs Polissya II: prediction and stats
Persha LigaRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion SKIF, Lviv
The Footlab model makes Polissya II the favourite at 35%, against 30% for a draw and 35% for Yarud Mariupol'. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Yarud Mariupol' vs Polissya II?
A very open match: only 52 Elo points separate Yarud Mariupol' (1,602) and Polissya II (1,654).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Yarud Mariupol' have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Polissya II have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Dinaz Vyshhorod(away) | 6-0 | Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kolos Kovalivka II(home) | 3-1 | Persha Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | SK Poltava(home) | 0-3 | Persha Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk(away) | 0-2 | Persha Liga |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka(home) | 0-1 | Persha Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Chernihiv(away) | 2-2 | Persha Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Metal Kharkiv(home) | 0-1 | Persha Liga |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Inhulets(away) | 1-2 | Persha Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | UCSA(home) | 2-2 | Persha Liga |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Veres Rivne(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Yarud Mariupol' score 1.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Polissya II score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yarud Mariupol' | 1.5 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Polissya II | 1.7 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Yarud Mariupol' sit 13th in Persha Liga (3 points from 4 matches) and Polissya II sit 15th (2 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Yarud Mariupol' | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 15 | Polissya II | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Yarud Mariupol' vs Polissya II?
- The Footlab model makes Polissya II the favourite at 35%, against 30% for a draw and 35% for Yarud Mariupol'.
- Where and when is Yarud Mariupol' vs Polissya II played?
- Yarud Mariupol' vs Polissya II is played on September 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion SKIF, in the Persha Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.