Chernihiv vs Inhulets: prediction and stats
Persha LigaRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Yunist, Chernihiv
The Footlab model makes Chernihiv the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Inhulets. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chernihiv vs Inhulets?
A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Chernihiv (1,599) and Inhulets (1,641).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chernihiv have 2 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats; Inhulets have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Polissya II(home) | 2-2 | Persha Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Probiy Horodenka(away) | 1-1 | Persha Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kulykiv(home) | 1-1 | Persha Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Lokomotiv Kyiv(away) | 1-1 | Persha Liga |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Obolon'-Brovar(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Veres Rivne(home) | 1-4 | Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nyva Ternopil(home) | 1-2 | Persha Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Oleksandria(away) | 0-3 | Persha Liga |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Polissya II(home) | 2-1 | Persha Liga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Probiy Horodenka(away) | 2-2 | Persha Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Chernihiv win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Inhulets win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Chernihiv 1-2 Inhulets | Persha Liga |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Inhulets 1-1 Chernihiv | Persha Liga |
| Oct 8, 2023 | Inhulets 6-1 Chernihiv | Persha Liga |
| Aug 7, 2023 | Chernihiv 0-2 Inhulets | Persha Liga |
Last archived meeting: Chernihiv vs Inhulets on May 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chernihiv score 1.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Inhulets score 1.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chernihiv | 1.1 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Inhulets | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chernihiv sit 10th in Persha Liga (4 points from 4 matches) and Inhulets sit 11th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Chernihiv | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 11 | Inhulets | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chernihiv vs Inhulets?
- The Footlab model makes Chernihiv the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Inhulets.
- Where and when is Chernihiv vs Inhulets played?
- Chernihiv vs Inhulets is played on September 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Yunist, in the Persha Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.