Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Sparta Katowice: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 3Group III - 23Kick-off on March 20, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)ArcelorMittal Park, Sosnowiec
The Footlab model makes Sparta Katowice the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Zaglebie Sosnowiec. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Sparta Katowice?
Sparta Katowice starts as the favourite with a 122-point Elo edge (1,832 vs 1,710).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Zaglebie Sosnowiec have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Sparta Katowice have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Carina Gubin(away) | 4-0 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Ślęza Wrocław(home) | 3-1 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | ROW Rybnik(away) | 1-4 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Goczałkowice Zdrój(home) | 2-0 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Tychy 71(away) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ślęza Wrocław(home) | 3-0 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Goczałkowice Zdrój(home) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Stal Brzeg(away) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Stilon Gorzów(home) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Zagłębie Lubin II(away) | 0-1 | III Liga - Group 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Zaglebie Sosnowiec score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Sparta Katowice score 1.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 1.2 | 1.5 | 5 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Sparta Katowice | 1.9 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Zaglebie Sosnowiec sit 3rd in III Liga - Group 3 (10 points from 5 matches) and Sparta Katowice sit 5th (10 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 10 |
| 5 | Sparta Katowice | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Sparta Katowice?
- The Footlab model makes Sparta Katowice the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Zaglebie Sosnowiec.
- Where and when is Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Sparta Katowice played?
- Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Sparta Katowice is played on March 20, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at ArcelorMittal Park, in the III Liga - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 20, 2027Stal BrzegvsKluczbork
- Mar 20, 2027Stilon GorzówvsMiedź Legnica II
- Mar 20, 2027Zagłębie Lubin IIvsWarta Gorzów
- Mar 20, 2027Górnik PolkowicevsROW Rybnik
- Mar 20, 2027Ślęza WrocławvsSKRA Częstochowa
- Mar 20, 2027Goczałkowice ZdrójvsSłowianin
- Mar 20, 2027Odra Bytom OdrzańskivsKarkonosze Jelenia Góra
- Mar 20, 2027Barycz SułówvsCarina Gubin