Žiri vs Tolmin: prediction and stats
3. SNL - WestWest - 5Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Športnem Parku Polje, Žiri
The Footlab model makes Tolmin the favourite at 61%, against 20% for a draw and 19% for Žiri. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Žiri vs Tolmin?
Tolmin starts as the favourite with a 115-point Elo edge (1,493 vs 1,377).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Žiri have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Tolmin have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vipava(away) | 3-1 | 3. SNL - West |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Adria(home) | 1-1 | 3. SNL - West |
| May 23, 2026 | Tolmin(home) | 0-3 | 3. SNL - West |
| May 17, 2026 | Zidgrad Idrija(away) | 0-0 | 3. SNL - West |
| May 10, 2026 | Škofja Loka(home) | 0-4 | 3. SNL - West |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Šencur(away) | 3-3 | 3. SNL - West |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Dob(home) | 1-1 | 3. SNL - West |
| May 23, 2026 | Žiri(away) | 3-0 | 3. SNL - West |
| May 16, 2026 | Vipava(home) | 0-0 | 3. SNL - West |
| May 9, 2026 | Zidgrad Idrija(home) | 3-0 | 3. SNL - West |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Žiri win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Tolmin win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Žiri 0-3 Tolmin | 3. SNL - West |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Tolmin 3-1 Žiri | 3. SNL - West |
| May 29, 2021 | Žiri 1-0 Tolmin | 3. SNL - West |
| Sep 5, 2020 | Žiri 0-2 Tolmin | 3. SNL - West |
How many goals should we expect?
Žiri score 1.2 and concede 2.4 goals per match over their last 15; Tolmin score 2.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Žiri | 1.2 | 2.4 | 4 | 6/15 | 12/15 |
| Tolmin | 2.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Žiri sit 5th in 3. SNL - West (4 points from 2 matches) and Tolmin sit 8th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Žiri | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | Tolmin | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Žiri vs Tolmin?
- The Footlab model makes Tolmin the favourite at 61%, against 20% for a draw and 19% for Žiri.
- Where and when is Žiri vs Tolmin played?
- Žiri vs Tolmin is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Športnem Parku Polje, in the 3. SNL - West.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.