Where and when is A Madrid III vs Atlético Astorga played?

A Madrid III vs Atlético Astorga is played on September 27, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Cerro del Espino Campo Artificial, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

A Madrid III vs Atlético Astorga: prediction and stats

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5Group 5 - 4Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Cerro del Espino Campo Artificial, Majadahonda

A Madrid III

Atlético Astorga

The Footlab model makes A Madrid III the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Atlético Astorga. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win A Madrid III vs Atlético Astorga?

A very open match: only 44 Elo points separate A Madrid III (1,845) and Atlético Astorga (1,889).

A Madrid III win43 %

Draw28 %

Atlético Astorga win30 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, A Madrid III have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Atlético Astorga have 5, 5 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

A Madrid III
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Móstoles(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
May 3, 2026	SS Reyes II(away)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Apr 25, 2026	Racing Madrid(home)	5-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Apr 19, 2026	Las Rozas(away)	5-3	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Apr 11, 2026	Unión Adarve(home)	3-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

Atlético Astorga
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Cultural Leonesa(home)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 15, 2026	La Bañeza(away)	0-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Deportivo La Coruña II(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
May 3, 2026	UD Ourense(away)	1-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 26, 2026	Sarriana(home)	1-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

How many goals should we expect?

A Madrid III score 2.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Atlético Astorga score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
A Madrid III	2.1	1.4	2	12/15	10/15
Atlético Astorga	1.3	1.3	5	7/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for A Madrid III vs Atlético Astorga?: The Footlab model makes A Madrid III the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Atlético Astorga.
Where and when is A Madrid III vs Atlético Astorga played?: A Madrid III vs Atlético Astorga is played on September 27, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Cerro del Espino Campo Artificial, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.