Where and when is Numancia vs Guadalajara played?

Numancia vs Guadalajara is played on September 27, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Numancia vs Guadalajara: prediction and stats

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5Group 5 - 4Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos, Soria

Numancia

Guadalajara

The Footlab model makes Numancia the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Guadalajara. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Numancia vs Guadalajara?

A very open match: only 61 Elo points separate Numancia (1,943) and Guadalajara (1,882).

Numancia win51 %

Draw26 %

Guadalajara win22 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Numancia have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Guadalajara have 5, 5 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Numancia
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Zaragoza(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
May 17, 2026	Poblense(away)	1-2	Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs
May 10, 2026	Poblense(home)	0-1	Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs
May 3, 2026	Marino de Luanco(home)	1-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 26, 2026	Langreo(away)	1-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Guadalajara
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 18, 2026	Marchamalo(away)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs
May 23, 2026	Real Madrid II(home)	2-2	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
May 17, 2026	Athletic Club II(away)	1-2	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
May 9, 2026	Arenteiro(home)	2-0	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
May 2, 2026	Real Avilés(away)	2-2	Primera División RFEF - Group 1

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Numancia win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Guadalajara win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 7, 2024	Guadalajara 1-0 Numancia	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Nov 26, 2023	Numancia 0-2 Guadalajara	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Last archived meeting: Guadalajara vs Numancia on Apr 7, 2024

How many goals should we expect?

Numancia score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Guadalajara score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Numancia	1.3	0.9	4	9/15	7/15
Guadalajara	1.5	1.3	4	9/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

2024-25 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guadalajara	34	22	8	4	60	22	74

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Numancia vs Guadalajara?: The Footlab model makes Numancia the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Guadalajara.
Where and when is Numancia vs Guadalajara played?: Numancia vs Guadalajara is played on September 27, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.