AC Milan vs Fiorentina: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 18Kick-off on January 6, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano
The Footlab AI model makes AC Milan the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Fiorentina. The most likely score is 1-1. If AC Milan wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,919 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AC Milan vs Fiorentina?
AC Milan starts as the favourite with a 156-point Elo edge (2,204 vs 2,049).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for AC Milan vs Fiorentina
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
AC Milan
3-4-3- 12A. Rabiot
- 9Gonçalo Ramos
- 11C. Pulišić
- 21S. Chukwueze
- 80Y. Musah
- 22Diego Moreira
- 14L. Modrić
- 31S. Pavlović
- 34Mario Gila
- 5K. De Winter
- 16M. Maignan
Fiorentina
4-2-3-1- 32Mateo Pellegrino
- 30Franco Mastantuono
- 27C. Ndour
- 44N. Fagioli
- 25A. Njie
- 28Pote
- 3R. Drăgușin
- 20Álex Jiménez
- 33Viery
- 5M. Pongračić
- 43David de Gea
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 01:31 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AC Milan have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Fiorentina have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Atalanta(home) | 3-2 | Serie A |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg(away) | 4-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Sassuolo(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lecce(home) | 3-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Como(home) | 1-3 | Serie A |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Genoa(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Napoli(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Pisa(home) | 3-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Venezia(away) | 4-2 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 AC Milan wins, 2 draws, 1 Fiorentina win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | Fiorentina 1-1 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Oct 19, 2025 | AC Milan 2-1 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Apr 5, 2025 | AC Milan 2-2 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Fiorentina 2-1 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Fiorentina 1-2 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Nov 25, 2023 | AC Milan 1-0 Fiorentina | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Fiorentina vs AC Milan on Jan 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AC Milan score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Fiorentina score 2.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Fiorentina | 2.0 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AC Milan sit 4th in Serie A (15 points from 7 matches) and Fiorentina sit 18th (4 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | AC Milan | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 15 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 4 |
A question about AC Milan vs Fiorentina?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AC Milan vs Fiorentina?
- The Footlab AI model makes AC Milan the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Fiorentina.
- Where and when is AC Milan vs Fiorentina played?
- AC Milan vs Fiorentina is played on January 6, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.