AC Milan vs Fiorentina: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 18Kick-off on January 6, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano
The Footlab model makes AC Milan the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Fiorentina. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AC Milan vs Fiorentina?
A very open match: only 70 Elo points separate AC Milan (2,136) and Fiorentina (2,066).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AC Milan have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Fiorentina have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Torino(away) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Inter(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Celtic(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Benevento(home) | 4-1 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Real Madrid(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Watford(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | QPR(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 AC Milan win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Fiorentina win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | Fiorentina 1-1 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Oct 19, 2025 | AC Milan 2-1 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Apr 5, 2025 | AC Milan 2-2 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Fiorentina 2-1 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Fiorentina 1-2 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Nov 25, 2023 | AC Milan 1-0 Fiorentina | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Fiorentina vs AC Milan on Jan 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AC Milan score 1.2 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Fiorentina score 1.7 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Fiorentina | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | AC Milan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AC Milan vs Fiorentina?
- The Footlab model makes AC Milan the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Fiorentina.
- Where and when is AC Milan vs Fiorentina played?
- AC Milan vs Fiorentina is played on January 6, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.