Parma vs Fiorentina: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 15Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma
The Footlab AI model makes Fiorentina the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Parma. The most likely score is 1-1. If Fiorentina wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Parma vs Fiorentina?
Fiorentina starts as the favourite with a 111-point Elo edge (2,029 vs 1,917).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Parma vs Fiorentina
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Parma
3-4-2-1- 23N. Elphege
- 14E. Valeri
- 15E. Del Prato
- 19E. Touré
- 16M. Keita
- 4V. Sierro
- 80G. Fabbian
- 37M. Troilo
- 34Diego Carlos
- 29F. Carboni
- 40E. Corvi
Fiorentina
4-2-3-1- 23Beto
- 30Franco Mastantuono
- 27C. Ndour
- 44N. Fagioli
- 42C. Inao Oulaï
- 29W. Gnonto
- 3R. Drăgușin
- 20Álex Jiménez
- 6L. Ranieri
- 21Valde
- 43David de Gea
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 02:24 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Parma have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Fiorentina have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Inter(away) | 0-3 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Genoa(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Como(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Monza(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Cremonese(home) | 0-2 | Coppa Italia |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Genoa(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Napoli(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Pisa(home) | 3-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Venezia(away) | 4-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Torino(home) | 1-2 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Parma win, 5 draws, 0 Fiorentina wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Fiorentina 0-0 Parma | Serie A |
| Dec 27, 2025 | Parma 1-0 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Fiorentina 0-0 Parma | Serie A |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Parma 1-1 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Dec 6, 2023 | Fiorentina 2-2 Parma | Coppa Italia |
| Jul 20, 2023 | Fiorentina 1-1 Parma | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Parma score 0.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Fiorentina score 2.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parma | 0.7 | 1.5 | 2 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Fiorentina | 2.0 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Parma sit 18th in Serie A (4 points from 6 matches) and Fiorentina sit 19th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 4 |
A question about Parma vs Fiorentina?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Parma vs Fiorentina?
- The Footlab AI model makes Fiorentina the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Parma.
- Where and when is Parma vs Fiorentina played?
- Parma vs Fiorentina is played on December 13, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Ennio Tardini, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.