Accrington ST vs Exeter City: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 35Kick-off on March 13, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Wham Stadium, Accrington, Lancashire
The Footlab model makes Exeter City the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Accrington ST. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Accrington ST vs Exeter City?
A very open match: only 94 Elo points separate Accrington ST (1,676) and Exeter City (1,770).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Accrington ST have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Exeter City have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Exeter City(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Colchester(home) | 2-2 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sheffield Wednesday(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Bury(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Accrington ST(home) | 2-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Grimsby(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Plymouth(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Torquay(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Accrington ST win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Exeter City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Exeter City 2-0 Accrington ST | League Two |
| Mar 25, 2023 | Exeter City 5-0 Accrington ST | League One |
| Aug 27, 2022 | Accrington ST 0-0 Exeter City | League One |
| Apr 14, 2018 | Accrington ST 1-1 Exeter City | League Two |
| Nov 25, 2017 | Exeter City 2-0 Accrington ST | League Two |
| Mar 11, 2017 | Exeter City 0-2 Accrington ST | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Exeter City vs Accrington ST on Aug 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Accrington ST score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Exeter City score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington ST | 1.1 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Exeter City | 1.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Accrington ST sit 19th in League Two (1 points from 2 matches) and Exeter City sit 13th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Exeter City | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 19 | Accrington ST | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Accrington ST vs Exeter City?
- The Footlab model makes Exeter City the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Accrington ST.
- Where and when is Accrington ST vs Exeter City played?
- Accrington ST vs Exeter City is played on March 13, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Wham Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.