Newport County vs Bristol Rovers: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 35Kick-off on March 13, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Rodney Parade, Casnewydd
The Footlab model makes Bristol Rovers the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Newport County. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newport County vs Bristol Rovers?
A very open match: only 47 Elo points separate Newport County (1,712) and Bristol Rovers (1,758).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newport County have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Bristol Rovers have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bristol Rovers(away) | 3-5 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rochdale(home) | 3-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | AFC Wimbledon(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Yeovil Town(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 5-3 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | York(away) | 2-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Peterborough(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Portsmouth(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Newport County win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Bristol Rovers win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bristol Rovers 5-3 Newport County | League Two |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Bristol Rovers 3-0 Newport County | League Two |
| Sep 6, 2025 | Newport County 2-3 Bristol Rovers | League Two |
| Nov 14, 2023 | Newport County 0-1 Bristol Rovers | EFL Trophy |
| Mar 5, 2022 | Newport County 1-0 Bristol Rovers | League Two |
| Oct 23, 2021 | Bristol Rovers 1-3 Newport County | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Bristol Rovers vs Newport County on Aug 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Newport County score 1.9 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Bristol Rovers score 2.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County | 1.9 | 1.6 | 4 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
| Bristol Rovers | 2.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newport County sit 11th in League Two (3 points from 2 matches) and Bristol Rovers sit 10th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bristol Rovers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
| 11 | Newport County | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newport County vs Bristol Rovers?
- The Footlab model makes Bristol Rovers the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Newport County.
- Where and when is Newport County vs Bristol Rovers played?
- Newport County vs Bristol Rovers is played on March 13, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Rodney Parade, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.