AD Ceuta FC vs Castellón: prediction and stats
Segunda DivisiónRegular Season - 35Kick-off on April 18, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta
The Footlab model makes Castellón the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for AD Ceuta FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AD Ceuta FC vs Castellón?
A very open match: only 81 Elo points separate AD Ceuta FC (1,938) and Castellón (2,019).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AD Ceuta FC have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Castellón have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Las Palmas(home) | 0-2 | Segunda División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Andorra(away) | 1-5 | Segunda División |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Malaga(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Cadiz(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sabadell(home) | 0-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Real Sociedad II(away) | 1-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Levante(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Hércules(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Alaves(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 AD Ceuta FC win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Castellón win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | AD Ceuta FC 1-1 Castellón | Segunda División |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Castellón 3-3 AD Ceuta FC | Segunda División |
| Feb 11, 2024 | Castellón 2-2 AD Ceuta FC | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 15, 2023 | AD Ceuta FC 1-3 Castellón | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: AD Ceuta FC vs Castellón on May 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AD Ceuta FC score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Castellón score 1.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AD Ceuta FC | 1.1 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Castellón | 1.2 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AD Ceuta FC sit 22nd in Segunda División (0 points from 2 matches) and Castellón sit 7th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Castellón | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 22 | AD Ceuta FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AD Ceuta FC vs Castellón?
- The Footlab model makes Castellón the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for AD Ceuta FC.
- Where and when is AD Ceuta FC vs Castellón played?
- AD Ceuta FC vs Castellón is played on April 18, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.