Leganes vs Las Palmas: prediction and stats
Segunda DivisiónRegular Season - 35Kick-off on April 18, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganés
The Footlab model makes Leganes the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Las Palmas. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leganes vs Las Palmas?
A very open match: only 87 Elo points separate Leganes (1,930) and Las Palmas (2,018).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leganes have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Las Palmas have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Oviedo(away) | 1-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Girona(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tenerife(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Mérida AD(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Al-Rayyan SC(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | AD Ceuta FC(away) | 2-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Albacete(home) | 2-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cadiz(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | NEOM(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | União de Leiria(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Leganes win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Las Palmas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2026 | Las Palmas 2-0 Leganes | Segunda División |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Leganes 0-1 Las Palmas | Segunda División |
| May 18, 2025 | Las Palmas 0-1 Leganes | La Liga |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Leganes 2-1 Las Palmas | La Liga |
| Feb 18, 2023 | Leganes 0-0 Las Palmas | Segunda División |
| Sep 9, 2022 | Las Palmas 1-0 Leganes | Segunda División |
Last archived meeting: Las Palmas vs Leganes on Apr 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Leganes score 0.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Las Palmas score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes | 0.9 | 0.9 | 8 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Las Palmas | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leganes sit 5th in Segunda División (4 points from 2 matches) and Las Palmas sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Las Palmas | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Leganes | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leganes vs Las Palmas?
- The Footlab model makes Leganes the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Las Palmas.
- Where and when is Leganes vs Las Palmas played?
- Leganes vs Las Palmas is played on April 18, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Butarque, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.