AD Ceuta FC vs Eldense: prediction and stats
Segunda DivisiónRegular Season - 36Kick-off on April 25, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta
The Footlab model makes AD Ceuta FC the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Eldense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AD Ceuta FC vs Eldense?
A very open match: only 2 Elo points separate AD Ceuta FC (1,934) and Eldense (1,933).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AD Ceuta FC have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Eldense have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Las Palmas(home) | 0-2 | Segunda División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Andorra(away) | 1-5 | Segunda División |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Malaga(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Cadiz(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cadiz(home) | 2-2 | Segunda División |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Almeria(away) | 0-3 | Segunda División |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Albacete(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Villarreal II(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Real Murcia(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
AD Ceuta FC score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Eldense score 1.3 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AD Ceuta FC | 1.1 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Eldense | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AD Ceuta FC sit 22nd in Segunda División (0 points from 2 matches) and Eldense sit 19th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Eldense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| 22 | AD Ceuta FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AD Ceuta FC vs Eldense?
- The Footlab model makes AD Ceuta FC the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Eldense.
- Where and when is AD Ceuta FC vs Eldense played?
- AD Ceuta FC vs Eldense is played on April 25, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.