Eldense vs Almeria: prediction and stats
Segunda DivisiónRegular Season - 37Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat, Elda
The Footlab model makes Almeria the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Eldense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Eldense vs Almeria?
A very open match: only 95 Elo points separate Eldense (1,932) and Almeria (2,027).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Eldense have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Almeria have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cadiz(home) | 2-2 | Segunda División |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Almeria(away) | 0-3 | Segunda División |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Albacete(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Villarreal II(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Real Murcia(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Tenerife(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Eldense(home) | 3-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cordoba(away) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Al-Nassr(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Eldense win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Almeria win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Almeria 3-0 Eldense | Segunda División |
| Dec 3, 2025 | Eldense 2-1 Almeria | Copa del Rey |
| May 4, 2025 | Almeria 5-0 Eldense | Segunda División |
| Sep 8, 2024 | Eldense 1-0 Almeria | Segunda División |
How many goals should we expect?
Eldense score 1.3 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Almeria score 1.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eldense | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
| Almeria | 1.4 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Eldense sit 19th in Segunda División (1 points from 2 matches) and Almeria sit 7th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Almeria | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 19 | Eldense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Eldense vs Almeria?
- The Footlab model makes Almeria the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Eldense.
- Where and when is Eldense vs Almeria played?
- Eldense vs Almeria is played on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.